New federal coronavirus models are predicting up to 3,883 deaths and 66,835 cases by next week.
Federal health officials provided updated models Tuesday afternoon, nearly three weeks after releasing their initial projections.
Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says the percentage of people who have died of the virus has also grown by several percentage points since federal officials released their original models.
“The proportion of cases for those who have died has increased from 2.2% on April 9 to 5.5% as of April 27. It is expected that the case fatality ratio will continue to change over time. Based on available information 17% of cases have required hospitalization and less than 5% have required intensive care,” said Tam.
“Adults aged 60 years and older account for 95% of deaths. While only 45% of reported cases are male, males are more likely to be admitted to the hospital and the ICU.”
The new models show that the number of cases now doubles every 16 days, whereas originally they were doubling every three days.
“We estimated that each infected person passed the virus onto just over two additional people. Today stronger controls including physical distancing increased testing to identify and isolate cases and trace and quarantine contacts are helping to reduce the average number of people each case infects to just above one,” said Tam during Tuesday’s press conference.
Tam added that the number must fall below one person infected by each person carrying the virus, in order to defeat the coronavirus.
Vulnerable populations, especially those in elderly care homes, have been the hardest hit by the virus. Approximately 79% of all deaths have taken place in these facilities.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged Canadians to continue abiding by public health measures despite signs that the virus is slowing down.
“In many parts of the country, the curve has flattened, but we’re not out of the woods yet,” said Trudeau.