A new poll that segments voters by demographic groups reveals that the Liberals are struggling to retain support among their traditional base while waging a negative campaign meant to attract hard-left voters away from the NDP. 

The survey, which was conducted by Campaign Research, broke down voters based on seven demographic segments ranging from millennials, older, suburban middle class Canadians, hard right-wingers and hard-left wingers, among others. 

The poll was conducted between August 30, 2021 and September 1, 2021. It surveyed 3,011 Canadians to achieve its results. 

According to the results, the Liberals were polling 43% among the hard-left, nearly neck-in-neck with the NDP who were leading at 46% with this group.  

“They’ve gone negative and they are attacking anyone affiliated as a ‘conservative,’ including provincial premiers. But the ‘more urban, better educated & affluent’ and the ‘older, suburban and middle class’ segments are much less partisan or even ‘non-partisan’ and they do not like negative campaigns nor hard political attacks,” researchers wrote. 

“But the harder (more negative and partisan) the [Liberals] become to move these voters back to them, the more they lose from the other, larger groups of less partisan or even ‘non-partisan’ voters.”

In comparison, the Conservatives are gaining with traditionally Liberal groups like left-leaning, more female voters. 13% of voters in this group indicated that they are willing to vote for a Conservative candidate. Additionally, the Liberals are only polling 29% with this voter segment, while the NDP are considerably ahead at 40%. 

“(Conservatives have) remained positive in their campaign and aspirational about the future of Canada. This plays well with the less partisan or even ‘non-partisan’ voters and the CPC has made ground with these specific segments,” researchers wrote. 

With regard to overall national voter intention, Campaign Research found that the Conservatives were leading nationally with 33% of the vote, while the Liberals received 30% of the vote. 

Meanwhile, the NDP placed third at 22% of the vote, followed by the Bloç Quebecois who currently sit at 6%. Both the People’s Party of Canada and the Green Party came in tied at 4%. 

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