A poll conducted exclusively for True North finds that the Conservatives are leading the Liberals by a small margin. The Conservatives are ahead with 33% and the Liberals close behind at 31%, and the NDP in a distant third with 20%. The PPC and the Greens are effectively tied nationally. In Quebec the BQ has a lead (34%) over the Liberals (32%) within the margin of error.

The Liberals lead in Ontario (37%) ahead of the Conservatives at (33%). This is significantly narrower than in 2019 meaning the Conservatives will win more seats if these numbers hold on Election Day. Atlantic Canada looks to remain a Liberal fortress.  The Conservatives dominate the Prairies and are holding their vote in BC. The NDP has been growing in BC and Atlantic Canada. The PPC is ahead of the Greens in Ontario, on the Prairies and in BC.

Conservatives are leading with men of all ages. Their growth among young men is one of the reasons they are ahead of the Liberals overall. Conservatives and Liberals are tied with middle aged women, but the Liberal strength with older women has become a significant reservoir of strength for them. The NDP does best with those under 35. The PPC is at 9% with younger women (more than the Greens or BQ) which shows that their appeal is not how the legacy media portrays them.

Time for a change?

Overall, 61% of Canadians think it is time for a change of government. This is a high number, but not in the range that traditionally signals a change of government. 43% say that the Trudeau Liberals have done a bad job and a new party should be elected (rising to 62% on the prairies, 83% with Conservatives and 51% of BQ voters). 18% of people think Trudeau has done a good job, but it is time for a change. These are the swing voters Trudeau needs to scare back into voting for him. They make up 41% of NDPers, but only 14% of Conservatives.

The only age group that thinks Trudeau has done a good job is women of 55, while two-thirds of Canadians 35-54 think it is time for a change.

Views of the Leaders

While Jagmeet Singh is very popular (62% have a positive view of him, including even 43% of Conservative voters) its not enough to get people to vote for him. Both Trudeau (-7) and O’Toole (-10) have more people who think negatively about them than positively. That said Trudeau has more people intensely dislike him (32%) than O’Toole (29%). These numbers represent big growth for O’Toole, who’s personal numbers were significantly worse before the election and a big drop for Trudeau who started the campaign much more popular.

Trudeau has lost his appeal with younger voters with a majority (61% of men and 55% of women) having a negative view of him. The only age groups who have a majority positive view of him are middle-aged women (52%) and those over 55 (63%).

O’Toole is more popular on the Prairies (54% have a positive view of him) and surprisingly in Quebec (45% positive). More people dislike him in his native Ontario (56%) than like him (40%). O’Toole is also well liked by men over 35 and women between 35 and 54.

When it comes to trust Trudeau and O’Toole have almost identical scores. On a scale from 0 to 10 O’Toole gets a trust score of 4.15 which is slightly ahead of Trudeau at 4.09. Women trust Trudeau more than O’Toole, but O’Toole does better with men over 35. Challengers need a significant lead on the trust measure in order to overcome the natural tendency of Canadians to “stick with the devil they know.”

Methodology

854 Canadians were surveyed using a nationally representative online panel in either English or French. The survey was conducted between September 2 and 4, 2021. The margin of error is +/-3.4%, nineteen times out of twenty. The margin of error is higher for sub-groups. The results have been weighted for accuracy by age, gender, past federal vote and turnout using the most recent census data. The survey was conducted by ONE Persuasion Inc.

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