As Toronto voters head to the polls to pick the city’s next mayor, Olivia Chow’s resounding lead in the opinion polls has been narrowing as support for Ana Bailão surges in the final weeks of the race.
Of the 102 candidates that will be listed on voters’ ballots, 7 have distinguished themselves as the race’s competitive candidates who have any chance at winning.
Chow has been the person to beat this election, having consistently led all major polling companies’ opinion polls by double digits, reaching support in the low to mid-30s.
However, the former NDP MP’s support has been slipping the recent weeks as Bailão’s support surged after a last-minute endorsement from the popular former mayor John Tory.
Tory said that Bailão is the candidate who can best tackle the city’s challenges and called his former deputy mayor a “fighter,” a “negotiator,” and a “leader,” who “can deliver on the promise of Toronto.”
Forum Research’s final poll shows Chow at 29% while Bailão has 20% support.
In the last month of the campaign, Mark Saunders has tried to position himself as the anti-Chow candidate – the only one who can win the election and stop her from making traffic congestion, crime and affordability worse.
However, this has not translated into a corresponding bump in support, as Saunders has remained flat at around 15% support.
Anthony Furey – who is currently on leave as True North’s VP for editorial and content – has challenged Saunders, bringing centre-right policy ideas to the ballot, flanking the former police chief on the crime issue, drug injection sites, homeless encampments, and bike lanes.
Forum placed Furey at 11%, down two points compared to last week’s poll.
Lagging candidates include Josh Matlow and Mitzie Hunter polling at 8% and 5% respectively, as their progressive campaigns have been unable to siphon off support from Chow and the slightly more centrist Bailão.
Mainstreet Research pegs Chow at 34%, Bailão close behind with 25%, Saunders at 11%, Furey at 10%, and Matlow and Hunter battle it out for fifth at 7% and 5% respectively.
Voters are able to begin voting today at 10 am, and voting will continue until polls close at 8 pm.
Toronto was thrown into a mayoral byelection just a year after a scheduled municipal election saw former mayor Tory win a resounding victory for a third term. However, Tory’s tenure was cut short after a story in the Toronto Star reported that he had been having an affair with a city employee, compelling him to resign.
