The federal government’s chief actuary report showing how much Alberta would be entitled to if it left the Canada Pension Plan is expected in the fall, Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner says.
Horner said in a statement Thursday that the number will be a critical figure as Albertans decide whether a provincial pension plan is in the province’s best interests.
“During the first phase of our engagement on a potential provincial pension plan, we heard loud and clear that Albertans want more information on the value of the asset transfer Alberta would be entitled to if we were to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan,” Horner said.
The preferred method of the chief actuary involves convening a panel to interpret the asset transfer formula in the Canada Pension Plan Act. The interpretation will inform the chief actuary’s calculation.
“The federal government has indicated the panel’s interpretation will be ready this spring and the chief actuary’s calculation will be provided to Alberta this fall,” said Horner.
Alberta’s own report projects that by Jan. 1, 2027, the province’s share of CPP assets would be an estimated $334 billion, 53% of the CPP’s assets, significantly higher than Alberta’s relative population size within the CPP framework of around 15%. The federal government has rejected this analysis.
Horner previously said that the chief actuary has better data than what LifeWorks, who conducted Alberta’s report, had available.
The Alberta Pension Plan Engagement Panel, led by former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning, previously revealed that over 76,000 Albertans participated in the telephone town halls, and more than 94,000 completed an online survey.
In the province’s December update, Dinning said half of telephone town hall participants opposed the Alberta Pension Plan. 20% to 25% were in favour, and 25% to 30% felt they needed more information to decide. He clarified that some who opposed were willing to change their viewpoints in the future.
Dinning and Horner said that the future of the Alberta Pension Plan proposal hinges on the chief actuary’s report.
The Alberta Pension Protection Act promises that the Alberta government will not move forward with a provincial pension plan unless Albertans approve it in a referendum.
When asked whether the referendum would be binding, Horner said that only constitutional referendums are binding. Nonetheless, he emphasized the government’s duty to follow through on the wills and wishes of Albertans.
The proposed Alberta Pension Plan claims Albertans would save approximately $5 billion in its inaugural year.
Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, previously said she did not see Alberta’s projected figures as realistic. She also mentioned the many legal complexities of Alberta’s potential exit.
Alberta would have to negotiate portability agreements with the Canada Pension Plan and Quebec Pension Plan. Additionally, the province would be required to negotiate international social security agreements to guarantee similar treatment for individuals who spend part of their careers abroad.
Quebec has negotiated its own social security agreements with 39 countries, while Canada has negotiated with 60.
Since the Canada Pension Plan was formed nearly 60 years ago, no province has ever left, but Quebec opted not to join in the first place.
The Canada Pension Plan Act outlines the procedure for provinces to exit the CPP, requiring them to issue written notice, accept contributions after a waiting period, provide benefits comparable to those of the CPP, and assume liabilities for members.
A province’s decision to leave the CPP does not require approval from the federal government or other provinces.
Horner said that during the first phase of the province’s engagement on a potential provincial pension plan, it was clear that Albertans wanted more information on the value of asset transfers to which Alberta would be entitled should it withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan.
“I encourage Albertans to continue submitting their thoughts on a potential Alberta Pension Plan. The engagement panel is still accepting workbook submissions until the end of February while they do their analysis of the town halls and online survey,” said Horner.
“We will continue to provide all the information necessary for Albertans to make an informed decision on our next steps.”
