The Liberal government had initially created a proposal to raise Canada’s annual immigration rate to one million people per year, according to newly obtained internal documents.
The current rate of 400,000 permanent residents per year had originally been part of a three-option plan drafted by a deputy minister about how many permanent residents to accept annually. One of those options was a target of one million newcomers each year.
According to the documents obtained by the Toronto Star, the Liberals rejected the option of having one million permanent residents for 2023.
The memorandum was drafted for cabinet’s consideration in 2020.
Ultimately, the Trudeau government settled on accepting a ratio of about 1% of Canada’s population, being 401,000 permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,00 in 2023.
However, CIBC Capital Markets Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal told federal cabinet ministers last year that they were undercounting the amount of non-permanent residents and foreign students by around 1 million people, due to how Statistics Canada tallies its data.
“This proposal puts forward options that reflect the Government’s ambition and priorities for immigration,” reads the document. “All options signal future growth and reflect the continuing importance of immigration, with broad ranges for flexibility amidst uncertainty.”
The proposal was part of a 112-page evidence filing to the Federal Court in a legal challenge against the federal government’s family reunification policy.
The immigration target of 341,000 people for 2020 fell short due to the Covid-19 lockdowns and some believed that Canada’s economy would suffer as a result.
“The proposed immigration levels plan aims to protect and enhance Canada’s immigration advantage, leverage it to welcome a growing number of newcomers who will contribute to short-term recovery and long-term growth, and seize the opportunity to help shape and support a future vision for our country,” reads the plan.
The proposal aimed to boost francophone communities outside of Quebec and alleviate regional labour shortages by bringing in higher levels of international students and foreign workers to become permanent residents.
According to several consultations, provinces differed on their support for the plan, with Alberta and British Columbia seeking to put a pause on immigration growth, while Ontario and other provinces wished to see population growth that was “modest, incremental, stable and managed.”
Citing public confidence in Canada’s “long history of managed migration,” the proposal suggested that the country was ready for growth at a time when countries like the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand were all showing support for reduced immigration levels.
“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada was clearly foolish to think that one million was a number that would maintain public support for immigration,” University of Ottawa law and public health professor Amir Attaran told the Toronto Star.
“Obviously, we’ve never been close to a million and IRCC wanted cabinet to consider doing something clearly out of precedent. It wasn’t gradualism. It was extremism.”
The documents did acknowledge the sort of problems that would accompany an increase of that kind, like the need to increase the Canada Border Services Agency’s funding by $2 billion and the added strain it would place on housing and healthcare infrastructure.
“We are at a unique juncture in Canadian history. We are facing the challenge of our generation, and we will meet our moment,” then-Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino told reporters in October 2020, after he tabled the federal government’s 2021-23 immigration plan in Parliament.
“Before the pandemic, our government’s goal to drive the economy forward through immigration was ambitious. Now, it is simply vital.”
However, public opinion on immigration has taken a dramatic shift in Canada, with more and more Canadians wanting to see a pause on targets or a reduction in levels altogether, partly due to the housing crisis, high-interest rates and inflation over the past several years.
