The Trudeau government’s proposed mandate to ban the sale of all new gas and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035 may prove to be untenable for the country’s power grid, according to a new study from the Fraser Institute.
The analysis, titled Failure to Charge: A Critical Look at Canada’s EV Policy, takes an in-depth look at the federal mandate, which would force the national power grid to produce 15.3% more electricity than it currently does within the next 11 years.
“Canadians need to know just how much additional electricity is going to be required in order to meet Ottawa’s electric vehicle mandate, because its impact on the provinces — and taxpayers and ratepayers — will be significant,” said G. Cornelis van Kooten, the study’s author and a Fraser Institute senior fellow.
In line with the European Union’s mandate to ban the sale of all gas-powered vehicles with EV by 2035, Trudeau plans to do the same in Canada.
As announced in December by Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard will mandate that all new cars and trucks be electric by 2035.
Not only will the shift to EV only sales be a significant burden on the power grid, it may not even be possible.
“Requiring all new vehicle sales in Canada to be electric in just 11 years means the provinces need to substantially increase their power generation capabilities, and adding the equivalent of 10 new mega-dams or 13 new gas plants in such a short timeline isn’t realistic or feasible,” said van Kooten.
The shift to “green” power would also mean the installation of 5,000 new wind turbines, however each turbine would still be required to be backed up by natural gas for days when the wind is not blowing.
Even if every Canadian were driving an electric car, there would still be the issue of offsetting the power grids’ baseload requirement because the vast majority of people would recharge their car battery overnight, as one does with their cell phone.
Currently, the power grid is protected against the heavy electricity use of the afternoon and evening, however, overnight charging will throw off the peak load and introduce a new unpredictable component.
“Baseload capacity requires a generating source that is reliable and operates near capacity all year round except for planned outages. Baseload power can only be provided by a coal plant, combined-cycle natural gas turbine, nuclear power plant, or hydro-with-reservoir facility. Wind cannot serve as a baseload power source because of its intermittency,” reads the study.
“The unpredictable nature of the night-time load resulting from EV recharging can be satisfied to some extent by baseload plants, but more likely by peak plants such as open-cycle natural gas turbines (OCGT) and diesel generators. Wind, run-of-river hydro and solar are also important potential energy sources but they require OCGT facilities as backup.”
There is also the issue of Canada’s climate, with winters often lasting over six months in many parts of the country, keeping EV batteries charged will prove to be an ongoing problem for most Canadians.
“Although investment in EVs is ongoing, harsh Canadian winters reduce the feasibility of EVs — batteries are less efficient and more difficult (and sometimes nearly impossible) to recharge if temperatures are well below freezing. This is a particular problem where outdoor parking prevails, which is the case at many workplaces and residential areas in some regions of Canada,” reads the study.
