The shocking byelection victory for the Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul’s has many calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to change course, or even resign.
As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s and his Liberal party’s popularity continues to decline, political experts have suggested that Trudeau step down as the Liberal leader in order to salvage his party’s electoral prospects.
Samuel Duncan of Wellington Advocacy told True North that while extrapolating too much from a single byelection would be unwise, the result demonstrated that there is an appetite for change among the Canadian electorate.
“The people of Toronto—St. Paul’s sent a clear message to Prime Minister Trudeau that they are ready for change,” said Duncan. “The CPC surprise upset victory in one of the safest seats in the country for Liberals will inevitably lead to questions around the future of Prime Minister Trudeau and give cause for concern for many Liberal MPs.”
Toronto—St. Paul’s saw a rapid shift in public support, as the riding was considered a safe seat for the Liberalssince 1993. Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett had won 49.2% of the vote in 2021, compared to the 25.6% the Conservatives got.
Evan Menzies of Crestview Strategy told True North that Trudeau could either try to remain the Liberal leader and attempt to rebrand the party, or pass the leadership on to a successor.
“Politically, Prime Minister Trudeau has two viable options: concede his government program is not working, reverse course on several contentious policies, and reinvent himself, or pass on the reins to a successor,” said Menzies.
However, doubt lingers as to what course of action would be best for the Liberals.
Duncan said that while Canadians seem to be ready for change, replacing the Liberal leader before the scheduled 2025 general election would be difficult, as the Liberal Party of Canada’s brand is far too intertwined with Trudeau.
“Without a clear natural successor and a party that has been built around the Trudeau brand, I do not believe that he will either resign or be forced out,” said Duncan. “Many Liberals still view him as their best bet especially with the upcoming US elections and the possible Trump presidency.”
Menzies said that a rebrand attempt is not guaranteed to help the Liberals’ electoral prospects.
“He has two choices: concede his program has failed and reinvent himself, or step aside. But there’s no assurances that a fresh coat of paint will be a wall against the wave of sentiment demanding dramatic political change,” said Menzies.
While the Liberals saw their support collapse in Toronto—St. Paul’s, the NDP also saw a large drop in their vote share from 2021 from 16.8% to 10.9%, a figure that Duncan says should concern New Democrats.
“It is also interesting that in both the Durham and Toronto—St. Paul’s byelections, the CPC have pulled support from the Liberals and the NDP. This should scare the NDP and signal both that the CPC’s focus on working class issues is working and that the NDP’s attachment to Trudeau is pushing voters away,” said Duncan.
The poor performance by both the Liberals and NDP has not gone unnoticed by progressives, alarmed by the election results.
Progressive commentator Andrew Perez started ringing the alarm bells for the Liberals and called for the party to undergo “major reform.”
“There is no safe Liberal seat. I repeat: there is no safe Liberal seat in the land,” said Perez. “We need major reform within the federal Liberal Party. Today. Enough is enough.”
Former Ontario NDP MLA Cheri DiNovo noted the Liberals’ domination is coming to an end and claimed that Stewart and the Conservatives’ victory is a win for the “alt-right.”
“The end of the Liberals as the “natural governing party” begins in Toronto—St. Paul’s,” said DiNovo. “The Alt -Right is taking over Canada. Question: What are we all going to do about it?”
