Many are asking: what would an Israeli victory in its war on Gaza look like? This is a valid question, and the answers vary depending on one’s views, morals, and political stance. However, the most appropriate way to define an Israeli victory should align with the Israeli government’s declared objectives for the war, which are as follows: securing the release of all hostages, dismantling Hamas as a political and military force, and ensuring that Gaza will never again be capable of inflicting an attack like the events of October 7th on Israeli civilians.
On October 7th, approximately 250 civilians, including babies, children, mothers, and the elderly, were taken hostage by Hamas militants. To date, roughly 150 hostages have been released through a combination of military operations and negotiations (tragically, many of those returned were deceased).
While some may view the partial release of hostages after 11 months of conflict as a shortcoming, the complexities of this operation cannot be overstated. Hamas has dispersed the hostages, hidden them deep underground, and threatened to execute them if rescue attempts seemed imminent. This was evident in the recent execution of six young hostages. Given these circumstances, the release of a significant portion of the hostages is a considerable achievement. Still, until all hostages are safely returned, this goal remains incomplete.
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, “We will not stop until all our hostages are home, no matter how long it takes.”
The second objective—dismantling Hamas as a political and military force—has been largely achieved. An estimated 15,000 to 20,000 Hamas militants have been killed, and tens of thousands more have been injured. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have eliminated most of Hamas’s leadership, both political and military, with the few remaining leaders hiding in underground tunnels, cut off from their people.
Hamas’s infrastructure has been systematically destroyed, including its access to external supplies via the Philadelphi Corridor, now fully under Israeli control. The organization, once the de facto governing force in Gaza, no longer functions as such. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi confirmed this, stating, “Hamas is no longer a functioning government in Gaza.”
Perhaps the clearest sign of Hamas’s diminished capabilities is Israel’s decision to shift the majority of its forces to the northern front to confront threats from Hezbollah, leaving only a limited force in Gaza. This strategic shift reflects the IDF’s confidence in Hamas’s current inability to pose a significant threat.
The final objective, ensuring that Gaza will never again threaten Israel with an attack similar to that of October 7th, has also been substantially realized. Israel’s overwhelming military response has significantly weakened Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Gaza, making it highly unlikely they will be able to mount a comparable assault in the near future.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated emphatically, “Gaza will never again serve as a launchpad for terror attacks on Israeli civilians.” To ensure this, Israel plans to maintain a strategic presence in Gaza to prevent the resurgence of militant forces.
Moreover, Israel’s military response has likely established a powerful deterrent effect. Recent polls from Gaza indicate that nearly 60% of the population now disapproves of the October 7th massacre, a significant shift from the initial wave of support for Hamas’s actions. If Hamas claims to represent the Palestinian people’s interests, it will need to consider this shift in public opinion when planning future operations—assuming it even regains the capability to do so.
In conclusion, Israel has made substantial progress toward its stated goals in the Gaza conflict. Hamas, as a political and military force, has been severely weakened. Gaza’s ability to threaten Israeli civilians has been significantly reduced. While the full release of all hostages remains a critical and unresolved issue, Israel’s achievements in dismantling Hamas and establishing long-term security cannot be overlooked.
Looking ahead, Israel’s challenge will be to consolidate these gains and ensure lasting security, both through military strength and diplomatic efforts.
Dotan Rousso. Born and raised in Israel. Holds a Ph.D. in Law—a former criminal prosecutor in Israel. He lives in Alberta and teaches Philosophy at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology (SAIT). For comments: [email protected]
