The federal Conservatives have delivered another blow to the Liberals, clinching a decisive victory in the Cloverdale–Langley byelection.
On the eve of Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet, Conservative candidate Tamara Jensen secured the British Columbia riding for her party.
Freeland’s surprising resignation followed Liberal housing minister Sean Fraser’s announcement that he would not seek re-election in the next federal election and would be leaving the Liberal cabinet.
The Liberals ran Madison Fleischer as the candidate after former Liberal MP John Aldag announced he would resign as an MP to become a BC NDP candidate in the 2024 provincial election. Aldag eventually lost the race to the BC Conservatives.
On Monday night, Jensen won the riding with a landslide. The Conservatives received 64.5% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 16.9%, and the NDP at 13.4%.
Cloverdale–Langley has been a contested seat, swapping between the Liberals and Conservatives each election cycle. The 2021 federal election saw Liberal MP John Aldag beat Conservative MP Tamara Jansen by just over 1,500 votes to take the riding. The 2019 election went to Jansen, who beat Aldag by around 1,500 votes.
In comparison, the 2021 election saw a tight result, with the Liberals garnering 39.1% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 36.1%.
Voting day was reported by Elections Canada to have 92,061 registered electors, which does not include those who registered on election day. The total population of the riding is 130,665. However, by the time 93 of 122 polls were reported (76.23%), only 11,753 of the 92,061 registered electors had turned up to vote – 12.77%.
The 2021 General Election in Cloverdale–Langley City saw 53,758 votes cast of a total 88,348 electors – a nearly 61% voter turnout.
Polls gave the Conservatives a comfortable chance of winning as of Sunday. The popular poll aggregator 338Canada estimated that the Conservatives would receive 53% of the popular vote, followed by the Liberals at 27%, and the NDP at 17%.
However, a variable that the pollster may not have accounted for was the Canada Post strike, which resulted in electors not receiving voter information cards. Canada Post workers were ordered back to work the day following the byelection.
Elections Canada said that voter information cards were not required to vote.
To vote, electors were provided three options to prove their identity and address.
First, they could show a driver’s license or any other card issued by the federal, provincial, or municipal government with their photo, name, and current address.
Absent those pieces of identification, they could provide two pieces of identification from a government or government agency, a financial institution, an education institution, and a few other options.
The third option was to get somebody to vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address and can only vouch for one person.
The 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution created the federal electoral district in the Metro Vancouver area of British Columbia of Cloverdale—Langley City, which came into effect during the 2015 Canadian federal election.
However, the borders were redefined following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution.
The British Columbia riding flipping to the Conservatives follows a nationwide surge of support for the party.
As of Sunday, the Conservatives are projected to win 43% of the popular vote, trailed by the Liberals at 22%, and NDP at 19%.
The Conservatives are projected to win 226 seats. A majority government requires 172 seats. A two-thirds majority, often referred to as a supermajority, requires 226.
This is a developing story and may be updated as additional polls are reported.
