A majority of Canadians want to head to the polls to have a say on the future of Canada’s government before October 2025.
According to a Leger360 poll conducted from Jan. 10 – 13, nearly six in ten Canadians want an election before the fixed election date of Oct. 20.
Leger asked 1,545 Canadian voters, randomly selected and statistically weighted to be representative of Canada’s population, what their thoughts were on the ongoing Liberal party leadership race and a potential election.
Though a margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than 2.49%, 19 times out of 20.
According to the survey, 29% of Canadians don’t care to wait for the Liberals to choose a new leader and want an election to be called immediately. Another third, 30%, of Canadians, want one held no later than spring of this year.
Some 32% of Canadians would rather wait until the fixed election date for the general election.
The numbers have shifted when compared to an Abacus Data survey, which was conducted on the day of former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s fiery resignation just hours before being set to announce the government’s fall economic statement.
The poll found that 60% of Canadians wanted an immediate election before Trudeau’s resignation announcement.
According to the Leger poll, more than three-quarters of Canadians are concerned about the Liberal government’s ability to manage the relationship with the incoming Trump administration.
It also said that among Liberal voters, 27% prefer Liberal finance advisor Mark Carney, while 21% say Freeland should win the party’s leadership race.
For Canadians, however, Freeland and Carney garner near identical levels of support, with 14% of Canadians saying they’d rather see Freeland take over and 13% saying the same for Carney.
Both candidates are expected to run in the leadership race, which is set to conclude by Mar. 9, 2025, but haven’t officially announced their bid to become Canada’s next prime minister.
Carney is expected to launch his leadership campaign in Edmonton on Thursday. He recently appeared on Monday’s late-night The Daily Show with John Stewart, where he all but said he was running.
However, the ongoing Liberal leadership race has done little so far in swaying Canadians’ voting intentions.
Nearly half of Canadians, 47%, said they intend to vote for the Conservative party in the coming federal election. Conservatives are 26 points ahead of the Liberal party, which garnered only 21% of support.
