The Liberal government’s recent immigration cuts will not prevent Canada’s population from ballooning further, and it could reach over 80 million people within 50 years.
This is according to Statistics Canada’s population projections released on Tuesday.
Statistics Canada’s calculations use the country’s population, as estimated on July 1, 2024, as a baseline and use recent trends along with Canada’s most recent immigration plan.
“It is very important to note that Statistics Canada’s population projections are not predictions. The utility of population projections lies in their timeliness, giving decision-makers and planners an essential tool for planning for the future today,” reads the report. “Given that the particulars of this future remain uncertain, several projection scenarios are proposed, allowing users to consider a number of possible future evolutions.”
On the high end, Statistics Canada estimates that Canada’s population will reach just under 80.8 million by 2074. On the lower end of the projection, the agency said that the population would be no lower than 45.2 million. The mid-growth scenario projects Canada’s population to reach 59.3 million by 2074.
Irrespective of which growth projection occurs, Statistics Canada said that migratory growth will be the key driver of population growth in Canada. The agency previously revealed that 97.6% of population growth came from international migration in 2023.
Statistics Canada previously reported that population growth caused by record immigration was outpacing the rise in employment.
Canada’s birth rate fell to a record low last year, resulting in the country having one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Canada reported a measly 1.26 children per woman in 2023. A fertility rate of 2.1 is required for a population to grow naturally.
The agency added that population aging will also occur no matter the circumstances. In the medium growth scenario, Canada’s population aged 85 and older will double between 2031 and 2051, from 1.2 million to 2.8 million.
The share of those aged 65 and older would also increase in every province and territory.
Canada’s healthcare system will need $2 trillion to meet its ageing population’s needs, according to a C.D. Howe Institute report.
Regardless of the growth scenario, Alberta’s demographic weight will increase while Newfoundland and Labrador’s, Quebec’s, and Yukon’s will decrease between 2024 and 2049.
In the high-growth scenario, Alberta’s population will increase by 56% between 2024 and 2049. On the low end, it will still increase by 25%. Conversely, the high-end would see Newfoundland and Labrador with little change between 2024 and 2049, while the low-growth scenario would see the province’s population decrease by 16%.
Other provinces and territories have variations on whether their population percentage will increase or decrease depending on the growth scenario and how interprovincial migration plays out.
Canadians have previously flocked to Alberta in search of affordable housing.
A previous Angus Reid survey highlighted that almost three in ten Canadians were considering relocating provinces to find more affordable housing. Almost half of those who said they’d relocate chose Alberta.
True North compiled a list of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s immigration failures.
