Public opinion polling has consistently shown massive support for the Conservatives, with a double digit lead over the Liberals for months. But two pollsters in recent weeks have painted a rosier picture for the Liberals, even as their competitors continue to show a massive lead.
Mainstreet Research and Ekos are showing a surge in support for the Liberal Party of Canada following the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the launch of the Liberal leadership race.
An Ekos poll reported a dip in federal Conservative support to 38.5 per cent and a dramatic spike in support for the Liberal Party of Canada to 31.7 per cent – a significant narrowing of the Tory lead to 6.8 per cent.
Ekos conducted two surveys using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology to ask respondents over the phone and through text about their voting intentions if an election was held.
This is a dramatic shift from what polling aggregator 338 Canada has reported from other national polls around the same time period. The latest national polling aggregate, updated Sunday, shows the Conservatives winning 45% of the popular vote and forming a majority.
The polling aggregate shows Conservatives up 23 points ahead of the Liberals still. A recent Nanos poll measured a shift in support for the Liberals but still showed the Conservatives with a 17 point lead.
Ekos president Frank Graves told True North he is highly confident in Ekos’ results. He said the results were assembled with large nightly samples using random probability methods.
“Trend lines were vivid and clear and showed very high stability over the past two weeks,” he said.
Graves thinks the apparent discrepancy comes from other polls selecting earlier fielding dates, saying opinions could have changed based on Trump’s inauguration, threatened tariffs and a hopeful change in Liberal leadership.
“We, for example, had a CPC lead of 25 points only a month ago, which was pretty consistent with the moving average of other pollsters at that time,” Graves said.
Ekos reported that in Ontario, Conservatives are now only leading the Liberals by one point in the polls with 40% support. Graves pointed out that Mainstreet Research’s Ontario polling about the federal election reflects a similar trend.
According to the Mainstreet Research poll conducted over the phone from Jan. 25 to 26, the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario by two points. Among all voters, Conservatives had 34% support to the Liberals 36%. Mainstreet Research had a 3.2% margin of error 19 times out of 20.
Robert Martin, a senior data analyst at Mainstreet Research, told True North in an interview that its survey was not a national survey and, as such, was not included in the 338 Canada aggregate data.
He echoed the point that apparent discrepancies could result from data from earlier dates, too. He said pollsters such as Nanos, which is behind a paywall, for example, merge data over several weeks and, as such, won’t catch a change in perception immediately.
“I think in the next few weeks, you’re going to start to see some real movement towards liberals and other polls that are released as well,” he said.
Martin said calling potential voters over the phone allows for the entire population of Canada to be surveyed as opposed to an online sample which relies on an opt-in survey panel. He said those who did a survey a week prior are less likely to report a change of mind.
Martin suspects the flip in Ontario support is indicative of a national trend.
“I don’t think Ontario would be alone in showing a surge towards the Liberals,” he said. “We’ve had massive conservative leads in Ontario to now functionally a tie in our most recent provincial pool, that’s a big deal, that’s a big movement.”
Before Trudeau’s resignation, Mainstreet Research would ask respondents if they would vote for the Liberal government “under Justin Trudeau” or Conservatives “under Pierre Poilievre,” but now simply ask about supporting the Liberals under “a new leader.”
One Persuasion pollster Hamish Marshall says IVR polling should be taken “with a grain of salt.”
“What IVR technology is often very good at, in my experience, is detecting the movement of the parties but it gets the amount of movement wrong. So if IVR shows a big 10-point swing for a party, it probably means they’re up two or three points,” Marshall said. “We’ve seen that time and time again with IVR as a methodology.”
Marshall also said the Ekos sample vastly overrepresented people with university education, which likely skewed the results.
Abacus poll data differs
David Coletto, the founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, told True North in an interview that his most recent polling data contradicts that of Ekos and Mainstreet Research.
He said his national polling data from January 22 to 26, after Trump’s inauguration and after the primary candidates for the Liberal leadership race were announced, show Conservatives maintaining a 21-point lead over the Liberals, with 43% support.
He also said in Ontario, the Conservatives are still ahead by 15 points; however, the complete survey data were not available at the time of publication.
Coletto said he thinks the discrepancy between the polls lies in the over-the-phone survey method employed at Ekos and Mainstreet Research, though the two vary slightly.
The over-the-phone method gets responses from the most motivated people in Canada, Coletto claimed. Both pollsters agree that the IVR method has a lower response rate than an online panel does. Coletto thinks the type of people who are more likely to take the calls are people passionately engaged in politics at that moment, which could skew results.
“I think (the IVR method) is capturing, not necessarily a widespread change in public opinion, but an increase in enthusiasm among Liberal-oriented Canadians, right now,” Coletto said. “I think for the first time in quite a while, if you’re somebody inclined to vote Liberal right now, you’re probably more engaged than in a long time.”
He said the Liberal leadership race and Trump in the White House “aggravates and energizes” Liberal-oriented Canadians, which is leading to more Liberal voter engagement over the phone.
Coletto said that despite Abacus polls not seeing a dramatic change like the over-the-phone method pollsters, there has still been a measurable shift in a similar direction. He noted Conservatives are down three points and Liberals are up two nationally.
He agreed that online survey pools have a higher chance of having respondents who have been asked multiple times, which could result in a slowed ability to pick up on changing trends. However, he thinks his company’s method most likely represents Canadian opinion.
He said during the 2021 election, online panel polls such as his were more correct in the long run and accurately predicted that the Conservatives under Erin O’Tool did not have any significant momentum. He said the IVR method using pollsters such as Mainstreet Research and Ekos overrepresented the People’s Party of Canada in the last election due to the methodology.
“Ekos was saying at some points in the campaign that the People’s Party were gonna get 12% of the vote, and then their final poll said they were going to get about nine or 10. They only got four and a half,” Coletto said. “PPC supporters, at that moment, were highly engaged and wanted their voices heard. They felt left out.”
