A new Leger poll indicates that the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals would disappear if Mark Carney were to square off against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in a general election.
The Feb. 11 Leger 360 poll shows that if Carney took the reins of the Liberal party, the Liberals would be tied with the Conservatives for support.
The online panel survey found that Pierre Poilievre is in the lead by nine points over the “Trudeau Liberals” in the national polls, a significant change from two weeks prior when Conservatives held an 18-point lead.
The poll included answers from 1,590 voting-age respondents, statistically weighted to represent the demographics of Canada per recent census data, in both English and French as part of a LEO online panel from Feb. 7-10.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than 2.46 per cent, 19 times out of 20 for the Canadian sample.
It found that if an election were held today, 40 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada led by Poilievre, while 31 per cent would still vote for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
When asked who they would vote for if Carney led the Liberal party, Conservatives dropped down to 37 per cent while Liberals met them at 37 per cent as well. The most common demographic to vote for Carney is those aged 55 and up, with 46 per cent saying they would vote Liberal if he’s leader.
Poilievre was most popular among those aged 35-54 with 42 per cent saying they would still vote Conservative if Carney were in charge.
Carney is favoured among Liberal voters to be the new leader of the Liberal party, with 68 per cent backing his leadership and 37 per cent of Canadians supporting him as a leader.
Trudeau’s former deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, on the other hand, only holds 12 per cent support from Canadians, and Karina Gould, the government house leader, with only three per cent.
Again, those aged 55 and up were the most likely to want Carney in charge of the Liberals with 46 per cent saying they would vote for him.
In a scenario where Freeland runs the Liberal party, the currently held 31-per-cent support for the party drops to 28 per cent among decided voters. In that scenario, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP party was found to garner 15 per cent support among committed voters.
According to the poll, support for both the NDP and Conservatives drops by three points if Carney wins the leadership race over Freeland.
The gap between who Canadians would trust to manage U.S.-Canada relations also narrowed, with 22 per cent saying they would trust Poilievre to head negotiations and 20 per cent saying they would trust Carney to do so.
For comparison purposes, only nine per cent of Canadians said they would trust Ontario Premier Doug Ford or Trudeau to head the negotiations. Similarly, Freeland garnered six per cent trust from Canadians while Singh clocked in with five per cent.
The Trump tariffs are on voters’ minds while the Liberal Leadership race is underway.
According to the poll, 82 per cent of Canadians are concerned that Trump could use tariffs or trade sanctions to pressure Canada “into a closer union with the U.S.”
Liberals and NDP voters are the most likely to be concerned about this, with 93 per cent and 92 per cent respectively, expressing worry. In comparison, 75 per cent of Conservatives expressed concern about Trump’s use of economic force to merge the countries..
The Liberal leadership contest is set to conclude by Mar. 9.
