A new poll released this morning ahead of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet shuffle shows the Liberal party trailing the Conservatives by 10 points – with the CPC now leading among women and all age groups.
Meanwhile, just 19% of Canadians believe Trudeau should be re-elected, as his approval rating continues to drop.
According to Abacus Data’s latest national survey, if an election were held today, 38% of Canadians would vote Conservative (up 4% from late-June), while 28% would vote Liberal (down 1% from late June).
18% would vote NDP, (down 2% from late-June), 7% would vote for the Bloc Quebecois (unchanged), 5% would vote for the Green Party (unchanged) and 4% would vote PPC (down 1% from late June).
The poll shows that the Conservatives now lead with women and Canadians aged 18-29 – two groups who traditionally vote Liberal or NDP.
32% of Canadian women support the Conservatives; while 28% would vote Liberal, 23% would vote NDP, 5% would vote green, 7% would vote Bloc Quebecois and 4% would vote PPC.
Support for Conservatives also remains strong among Canadian men.
31% of Canadians aged 18-29 now support the Conservatives; while 26% would vote Liberal, 26% would vote NDP, 10% would vote Green and 3% would vote PPC.
Conservatives are most popular with Canadians aged 45 to 59.
Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead in every Canadian province or region except for Quebec and the Maritimes.
The Bloc Quebecois and Liberals lead the Conservatives by 12% and 10% respectively in Quebec, and the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 1% in the Maritimes.
The Conservatives have the most support in Alberta (55%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%). They also have 39% support in battleground Ontario and British Columbia.
Canadians say their top issues are cost of living (72%), healthcare (45%) and housing affordability, the economy, and climate change. (43%). More Canadians also say they’re concerned about immigration compared to last month.
Among those who ranked the economy as a top 3 issue, 47% believe the Conservatives are the best party to handle it.
The Abacus Data poll has also found that even fewer Canadians are keen on re-electing Justin Trudeau. Just 19% say the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, while 81% want to see a change in government.
Trudeau’s approval rating has also fallen to 29% – a new low for him in the Abacus tracker.
Amid his decreasing popularity, Trudeau has decided to embed the Liberal government with fresh faces in a major cabinet shuffle Wednesday.
Trudeau has also removed several top ministers from the cabinet, and changed the portfolios of a majority of his ministers. Ministers no longer in cabinet include David Lametti, Mona Fortier, Marco Mendicino, Joyce Murray, Helena Jaczek, Carolyn Bennett and Omar Alghabra
Reacting to the poll’s results, Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto said “the national picture remains quite challenging for the federal Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau,” as “the Prime Minister’s negatives remain elevated all while the cost of living, healthcare, and housing are in focus for most Canadians.”
“Today’s cabinet shuffle needs to signal that the government is responding to these concerns and the government should relentlessly focus on those issues.”
Coletto added that “for the Conservatives, while these results might feel good, there’s evidence that neither Poilievre or the party as a whole is making much progress comforting Canadians with the idea of a future Conservative, Poilievre-led government.”
“This remains a real and present danger for the Conservatives.”
The Abacus Data survey was conducted with 2,486 Canadian adults from July 20 to 25, 2023. The full results can be viewed here.
