This is a strip of Vancouver that runs through the middle of the city. It’s prosperous with stratospheric property prices and a significant Chinese-Canadian community. It should be a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former Justice minister who quit the Liberals over the SNC-Lavalin scandal won it as an independent in 2019. She’s not running again, so the Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed should win relatively easily, but it remains an important step on Trudeau’s path to a majority.

One of the most reliable Liberal seats off the Island of Montreal on the south shore, it was picked up by the Bloc Quebecois in 2019. It’s a mix of suburbs and rural areas with small but significant English speaking and Italian populations. The Liberals need to over come a 5.2% margin of victory by the BQ to take it back.

North shore suburban greater Montreal riding which should be a BQ stronghold, but the Liberals won in 2015. The BQ took it back with Luc Desilets in 2019, but the former Liberal MP (and former ADQ MNA) Linda Lapointe is back for the rematch. The BQ wants to gain seats from the Liberals in this election, but the Liberals will make them play defence in this seat.

South shore suburban greater Montreal seat that is increasingly ethnically diverse. One in six people is a visible minority. Despite the Liberals not having won here since 1980, they were only 4.3% behind the BQ. The former NDP MP ran for the Greens in the last election and overperformed. The BQ and the Liberals will be battling for those former NDP/Green votes and whoever wins them, will win the riding.

This rural slice of the Eastern Townships is a knife fight between the Liberals and the BQ. The BQ won by less than 1.5% in 2019 and the former Liberal MP Pierre Breton is attempting a comeback. This seat has a long history of changing parties, so expect it to be a must win for the Liberals and a must-hold for the Bloc.

The northern parts of the capital of Newfoundland and Labrador have a history with the NDP. Jack Harris won in 2019 and had previously held the seat from 2008 to 2015. But he is not running again this time. The Liberals would dearly like a clean sweep of the province again and the NDP needs to hold on if they want to grow their seat count.

By some measures this is the largest electoral district in the world and it’s very difficult to predict who will win. Conservatives won in 2008 and 2011, the Liberals in 2015 and the NDP in 2019. The NDP MP Mumilaaq Qaqqaq who was an up-and-coming star in their caucus, is not running again citing racism. So, it’s anyone’s game and all three major parties will be targeting this seat.

New Brunswick’s capital is going to be a fascinating race. In 2019, it was a close three-way fight with the Greens just edging out the Conservatives and the Liberals. But that Green MP Jenica Atwin defected to the Liberals this spring. The Conservatives still think they can win it and the Greens, despite their internal issues, have a strong base in the city. If Atwin can hold on as a Liberal, it’s an important step on their path to a majority.

The top-left corner of Ontario is a mix of small remote communities and a few larger forestry-centred towns. It tends to follow the winning party in Ottawa. It was a surprise when the Conservatives won it in 2019 with 34% of the vote. Both the Liberals and the NDP were close behind, and if one of them can become the alternative to the Conservatives they will take it. High on the target list of both the NDP and Liberals.

This portion of suburban Greater Vancouver has one of the biggest Korean-Canadian communities in Canada. That’s one of the reasons Conservative MP Nelly Shin was able to win in 2019. It was a very tight three-way fight with the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals – all within 2% of each other. This is a top target for both the Liberals and NDP and a crucial hold for the Conservatives.

This enormous riding covers the northern half of Saskatchewan and is almost the size of Germany. It’s a mix of farming areas in the south and Indigenous communities further north. The Conservatives gained it from the NDP in 2019, but the Liberal candidate puts it at play. Buckley Belanger has been an NDP MLA for 26 years, and if anyone can unite the Liberal and NDP votes to defeat Gary Vidal, the Tory MP, it is Belanger.

Leona Alleslev narrowly won this seat as a Liberal in 2015, but crossed the floor to the Conservatives three years later. In 2019, Alleslev held on as a Tory by 2% of the vote. This York Region seat is a typical greater Toronto suburbia of detached homes, GO Train commuters and big box stores. The Conservatives need to hold this seat and win many more like it.

The seat includes the working-class city of Niagara Falls and the old-time charm of Niagara-on-the-Lake. Long-held by former Conservative senior Cabinet Minister Rob Nicholson, there was an expectation that the Liberals would take it when he retired in 2019. But the Tories held it with Tony Baldinelli by 3%. Liberal candidate Andrea Kaiser is coming after the seat hard.

Suburban and exurban Greater Vancouver south of the Fraser – Cloverdale used to have a rodeo feel, but it is now single family homes and townhouses like everywhere else. It was traditionally Tory territory until the Liberals surprisingly won in 2015. Conservative Tamara Jansen won it back in 2019 by less than 3%. The former Liberal MP John Aldag is on the hunt to take it back. This seat is near the top of the Liberals’ targets in BC.

The rural and exurban area surrounding Hamilton should be safe Conservative territory. However, David Sweet, the Tory MP and former Caucus Chair who represented the area since 2006 is not running again. Sweet only won by 2.6% and the Liberals are running Vito Sgro, a failed Hamilton mayoral candidate who opposed light rail projects.

The southwestern corner of Nova Scotia is a mix of fishing villages, farmland, with a significant French-speaking Acadian minority. While not traditionally seen as a particularly Conservative area, it was the only seat in Nova Scotia the Conservatives gained from the Liberals in 2019. The Liberals need to win it back to gain their majority.

Northumberland—Peterborough South is a collection of small towns and rolling farmland east of Toronto with an increasing number of commuters into the city. It leans Conservative but with a tendency to go Liberals when they are doing well. Conservative MP Philip Lawrence took it from the Liberals by 3.5% in 2019. The trends of white collar workers leaving Toronto to work from rural areas may mean this riding is shifting more towards the Liberals.

The western slice of Winnipeg is a mix of high, medium and low-income neighbourhoods. It’s a traditional Liberal/Conservative battleground. The Tory MP Marty Morantz is going head-to-head with the Liberal he beat by 5% in 2019 – Doug Eyolfson. This seat is at the top of the Liberals’ pick-up list in Manitoba and one of the few seats they can realistically gain in the prairies.

A rural riding in Eastern Ontario stretching between Belleville and Kingston was a surprise gain by the Liberals in 2015. The Conservatives won it back in 2019 with Derek Sloan. Sloan would go on to run a social conservative campaign for the party leadership and eventually be kicked out of caucus by Erin O’Toole. The Liberals need to overturn Sloan’s 4% margin to take it back. The Conservative candidate Shelby Kramp-Neuman is municipal councillor and daughter of the former Tory MP.

A mix of Greater Vancouver suburbia and the retirement beach town of White Rock, South Surrey—White Rock has long been a Conservative stronghold. Right of centre parties held this higher income seat from 1974 until the Liberals stole it in a by-election in 2017. Gordie Hogg, the long time MLA won it for the Liberals in that by-election but lost it to former Conservative cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay in 2019. They are both running again for another rematch.

This riding in the eastern suburbs of Vancouver is a combination of the high-income Westwood Plateau and more working-class Port Coquitlam. Formerly the riding of Conservative cabinet minister James Moore, it was one of the closest races in 2019 with the Liberals defeating the Conservatives by 390 votes. This is a must win for the Conservatives if they have any path to victory.

A mostly rural Anglophone riding in eastern New Brunswick centred on Miramichi. The Conservatives only lost it in 2019 by less than 400 votes. This time both parties have new candidates, both MLAs and former Cabinet Ministers. Lisa Harris will defend the seat for the Liberals while Jake Skinner is trying to take it for the Conservatives. In 2019 the PPC took over 1,000 votes letting the Liberals win, will do they do the same again?

Eastern Surrey had historically been a strong Conservative area, but Liberal Ken Hardie won in 2015 and hung on in 2019. The population is 30% Indo-Canadians with significant minorities of Canadians of Chinese and Filipino descent as well. The Conservatives are running Dave Hayer, a long-time former MLA with a strong record in the area. He needs to overcome a 4% Liberal margin of victory.

The Conservatives don’t have a lot of room to grow on the Prairies but if they pick up one seat, it will be this suburban slice of southern Winnipeg. Conservative candidate Melanie Maher lost to Liberal MP Terry Duguid by less than 4% last time and is back for a rematch. If the NDP gains a few points from the Liberals, the split could hand the riding to the Conservatives.

Long seen as a bellwether riding which elects members from the governing party, this regional centre and swath of farmland is an important symbol for all parties. The Liberal MP, Maryam Monsef, weathered scandals to win by less than 5% in 2019. This time the Conservatives will try to take it with former TV host, Michelle Ferreri. It’s on their must win list.

This seat is made up of the New Brunswick shipbuilding city of Saint John and its rich suburb of Rothesay. Conservatives have done well here in the past, but the Liberals won it easily in 2015. Liberal MP, Wayne Long, was able to hold on by on 3.5% in 2019. Now the Conservatives have former Mayor and New Brunswick PC leadership candidate Mel Norton as their candidate trying to stop Long from winning a third time.

This seat is made up of strings of fishing villages and outports along the Burin peninsula and the shores of Trinity and Bonavista bays in central Newfoundland. The Liberals won over 80% of the vote in 2015, but in one of the surprises of 2019, only kept the seat out of Conservative hands by about 6%. It’s a rematch with Liberal MP, Churence Rogers trying to hold off Sharon Vokey of the Conservatives.

A combination of suburban Kitchener with some rural townships has created a riding with razor-thin margins. It often defies trends, with Conservatives stopping the Liberal tide in 2015 to win by less than 300 votes, when the Liberals were losing their majority in 2019, they stole this seat by less than 400 votes. Long-time Conservative MP Harold Albrecht is not running again so they are trying their luck with Carlene Hawley to defeat Liberal MP Tim Louis.

An affluent suburb north of Toronto it is home to one of the largest Chinese-Canadian communities in the country. This is why the Conservatives almost won it in 2019, losing by only 212 votes. The Liberal MP, Majid Jowhari, who has been attacked being too pro-Tehran, has strong support in the Persian-Canadian community who make up about one in ten voters. Former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis is taking another shot at winning the seat back.

Suburban and exurban developments and acreages north of Toronto make for swing ridings. The Liberals barely held on in 2019 by less than 2%. The Conservative challenger who nearly won then was Anna Roberts, a municipal leader. She’s back to take on Liberal MP and Minister of Seniors, Deb Schulte. This is the sort of seat the Conservatives cannot form government without.

This riding makes up the western third of PEI including the city of Summerside. It’s been Conservative in the past but long-time Liberal MLA Bobby Morrissey has been the MP since 2015. The Conservatives lost by less than 6% in 2019 and it is their best chance for a pick-up on Prince Edward Island in this election.

Despite the goldrush territory’s significant conservative base, the Liberals have held it for most of this century. In 2019, Larry Bagnell, the long-time Liberal MP, defeat Conservative Jonas Smith by only 153 votes. Bagnell retired and Smith looked to be in the poll position. But the Liberals have nominated Brendan Hanley, who was the Yukon’s Chief Medical Officer of Health through the COVID crisis, and the Conservatives banned Smith from running due to his opposition to mandatory vaccines. Will the Conservatives snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or will their last minute candidate win anyway?

Downtown Edmonton with some of the nearer suburbs is always a swing seat. The Liberals held it through the Chretien/Martin years and the Conservatives won it when Harper was PM. Liberal Randy Boissonnault won it in 2015 defeating Conservative James Cumming. In their rematch in 2019 Cumming won. Now they are running against each other for the third time. The NDP runs a strong third here and a strong showing by them could prevent the Liberals from regaining the seat.

The northeast corner of Calgary is the most diverse riding in the city. The population is 37% Indo-Canadian and there are other communities from all over the globe. This riding has a strong progressive history at the municipal and provincial level and Trudeau won it in 2015. Conservative MP Jag Shaota won it back in 2019, but the Liberals are running hard with popular councilor George Chahal as their candidate.

This riding stretches from the Calgary bedroom communities of Airdrie and Cochrane through the foothills to Banff National Park in the Rockies. It has been represented by the Conservative Whip, Blake Richards since 2008, who won by almost 60% in 2019. The reason it's on the list is that Derek Sloan, the former Conservative leadership candidate, has left his Ontario riding to run here as an independent. Both the Maverick Party and the PPC are running candidates as well. Will the vote split or will Richards romp to victory once again?

If there is a seat which will test the blue-collar appeal of all three main parties it is Niagara Centre. The seat is made up of the industrial communities along the Welland Canal. What was thought to be a safe Liberal seat in 2019 was closer than they expected with the Conservatives only 4% behind and the NDP not far behind them. Look for a vicious fight as all three parties battle for this key seat.

The biggest centre along the St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City is the home to a three-way fight. In 2019, the BQ won with less than 2.4% of the vote, with the Liberals and Conservatives not far behind. The Conservative candidate is the former long-serving Mayor of Trois Rivieres, Yves Lévesque, while the BQ MP who won two years ago is not running again. All three parties will play for keeps in this seat.

An automotive and union seat in Canada’s own motor city, it has been held by NDP MP Brian Masse for 19 years. But the Liberals came within 4% of winning it in 2019 with Sandra Pupatello, the former MPP and senior cabinet minister in the McGuinty government. Pupatello is trying again, confident that is she can win it for the Liberals she has a very good chance of joining the federal cabinet.

The most conservative riding in Quebec is the home to another epic rematch. This stretch of dairy farms and small towns was the stomping grounds of Maxime Bernier (and his father before him) until he left the Conservative Party to create the People’s Party of Canada. He lost in 2019 to the Conservatives’ Richard Lehoux, a farmer, mayor and former head of the regional municipality. While Lehoux won by more than 10% last time, you can never count Mad Max out.

When Phil McColeman won this regional city with a strong manufacturing sector for the Conservatives in 2008, it was the first time in fifty years it was a significant gain. He won again in 2019 by 10% of the vote, but he’s not running in this election. The seat is a stretch goal for the Liberals, but becomes more winnable to them as it more commuters to Hamilton move in.

Part of Toronto’s west end with big Italian and Portuguese communities and a strong progressive history. This seat is a classic urban NDP/Liberal contest. Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz hung on by less than 3% last time. The NDP are now running Alejandra Bravo, a long-time Portuguese-speaking local activist and works for the progressive Broadbent Institute.

The eastern half of Windsor has a long NDP history, and they may be able to profit from the Conservatives splitting the vote. In one of the surprises of the 2019 election, the NDP lost to Windsor city councillor Irek Kusmierczyk of the Liberals with only 33% of the vote. The NDP was only 1.1% behind and the Conservatives not much further back. If the Liberals bleed votes to the Conservatives former NDP MP Cheryl Hardcastle could win again without increasing their own vote very much.

This seat combines heavily NDP and Chinese-Canadian parts of North Burnaby with more Liberal and Conservative leaning parts of North Vancouver. The Liberals won it in 2015 with Terry Beech and the NDP nearly snatched it back in 2019 but missing by less than 3.5%. The NDP are running Jim Hanson, a city councillor from the North Vancouver side, where they are weaker, in a strategic move to grow their vote. He’s a good candidate, but will it work?

The western side of Saskatoon is traditional NDP territory and they want it back. Conservative Brad Redekopp won it in 2019 by about 7.5%. What is striking about this victory is that the Conservatives would not have won it on the current boundaries in their big majority in 2011. Without a leader from Saskatchewan and with the NDP potentially gaining votes, can the Conservatives hang on?

This swath of Southwestern Ontario includes suburbs of Windsor as well as many farming communities. A long-time NDP/Conservative battleground, it was one of the seats the Conservatives gained in 2019. Chris Lewis won it for the Conservatives and is trying to hold on to it against the woman he defeated, former NDP MP Tracey Ramsey. If the NDP is gaining seats in this election this one will be near the top of the list.