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Forty-fivee ridings that will make or break this election.

True North’s in-house pollster Hamish Marshall has compiled the most important ridings in this election for each party. This comprehensive masterpiece is worth checking out.

20 Seats the Liberals Need

Vancouver Granville

Currently: Independent
Gap in 2019: 6%
WHY IT'S INTERESTING

This is a strip of Vancouver that runs through the middle of the city. It’s prosperous with stratospheric property prices and a significant Chinese-Canadian community. It should be a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former Justice minister who quit the Liberals over the SNC-Lavalin scandal won it as an independent in 2019. She’s not running again, so the Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed should win relatively easily, but it remains an important step on Trudeau’s path to a majority.

2019 Result 2021 Candidate
LPC 14,088 Taleeb Noormohamed
CPC 11,605 Kailin Che
NDP 6,960 Anjali Appadurai
GPC 2,683 Imtiaz Popat
PPC 431 Damian Jewett

La Prairie

Currently: Bloc
MP: Alain Therrien
Gap in 2019: 5.2%
WHY IT'S INTERESTING

One of the most reliable Liberal seats off the Island of Montreal on the south shore, it was picked up by the Bloc Quebecois in 2019. It’s a mix of suburbs and rural areas with small but significant English speaking and Italian populations. The Liberals need to over come a 5.2% margin of victory by the BQ to take it back.

2019 Result 2021 Candidate
BLOC 25,707 Alain Therrien
LPC 22,504 Caroline Desrochers
CPC 5,540 Lise des Greniers
NDP 4,744 L. Victoria Hernandez Garcia
GPC 2,565 Barbara Joannette
PPC 393 Ruth Fontaine

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Currently: Bloc
MP: Luc Desilets
Gap in 2019: 4.5%
WHY IT'S INTERESTING

North shore suburban greater Montreal riding which should be a BQ stronghold, but the Liberals won in 2015. The BQ took it back with Luc Desilets in 2019, but the former Liberal MP (and former ADQ MNA) Linda Lapointe is back for the rematch. The BQ wants to gain seats from the Liberals in this election, but the Liberals will make them play defence in this seat.

2019 Result 2021 Candidate
BLOC 23,629 Luc Desilets
LPC 21,009 Linda Lapointe
NDP 5,002 Joseph Hakizimana
CPC 4,684 Marc Duffy-Vincelette
GPC 3,015 TBD
PPC 845 Hans Roker Jr.

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Currently: Bloc
MP: Denis Trudel
Gap in 2019: 4.3%
WHY IT'S INTERESTING

South shore suburban greater Montreal seat that is increasingly ethnically diverse. One in six people is a visible minority. Despite the Liberals not having won here since 1980, they were only 4.3% behind the BQ. The former NDP MP ran for the Greens in the last election and overperformed. The BQ and the Liberals will be battling for those former NDP/Green votes and whoever wins them, will win the riding.

2019 Result 2021 Candidate
BLOC 23,061 Denis Trudel
LPC 20,471 Florence Gagnon
GPC 6,745 Simon King
NDP 5,104 Robert Morin
CPC 3,779 Boukare Tall
PPC 467 TBD

Shefford

Currently: Bloc
MP: Andréanne Larouche
Gap in 2019: 1.47%
WHY IT'S INTERESTING

This rural slice of the Eastern Townships is a knife fight between the Liberals and the BQ. The BQ won by less than 1.5% in 2019 and the former Liberal MP Pierre Breton is attempting a comeback. This seat has a long history of changing parties, so expect it to be a must win for the Liberals and a must-hold for the Bloc.

2019 Result 2021 Candidate
BLOC 23,503 Andréanne Larouche
LPC 22,605 Pierre Breton
CPC 7,495 Céline Lalancette
NDP 3,705 Patrick Jasmin
GPC 2,814 TBD
PPC 497 Gerda Scheider