Forty-fivee ridings that will make or break this election.
True North’s in-house pollster Hamish Marshall has compiled the most important ridings in this election for each party. This comprehensive masterpiece is worth checking out.
This is a strip of Vancouver that runs through the middle of the city. It’s prosperous with stratospheric property prices and a significant Chinese-Canadian community. It should be a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former Justice minister who quit the Liberals over the SNC-Lavalin scandal won it as an independent in 2019. She’s not running again, so the Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed should win relatively easily, but it remains an important step on Trudeau’s path to a majority.
2019 Result | 2021 Candidate | |
LPC | 14,088 | Taleeb Noormohamed |
CPC | 11,605 | Kailin Che |
NDP | 6,960 | Anjali Appadurai |
GPC | 2,683 | Imtiaz Popat |
PPC | 431 | Damian Jewett |
One of the most reliable Liberal seats off the Island of Montreal on the south shore, it was picked up by the Bloc Quebecois in 2019. It’s a mix of suburbs and rural areas with small but significant English speaking and Italian populations. The Liberals need to over come a 5.2% margin of victory by the BQ to take it back.
2019 Result | 2021 Candidate | |
BLOC | 25,707 | Alain Therrien |
LPC | 22,504 | Caroline Desrochers |
CPC | 5,540 | Lise des Greniers |
NDP | 4,744 | L. Victoria Hernandez Garcia |
GPC | 2,565 | Barbara Joannette |
PPC | 393 | Ruth Fontaine |
North shore suburban greater Montreal riding which should be a BQ stronghold, but the Liberals won in 2015. The BQ took it back with Luc Desilets in 2019, but the former Liberal MP (and former ADQ MNA) Linda Lapointe is back for the rematch. The BQ wants to gain seats from the Liberals in this election, but the Liberals will make them play defence in this seat.
2019 Result | 2021 Candidate | |
BLOC | 23,629 | Luc Desilets |
LPC | 21,009 | Linda Lapointe |
NDP | 5,002 | Joseph Hakizimana |
CPC | 4,684 | Marc Duffy-Vincelette |
GPC | 3,015 | TBD |
PPC | 845 | Hans Roker Jr. |
South shore suburban greater Montreal seat that is increasingly ethnically diverse. One in six people is a visible minority. Despite the Liberals not having won here since 1980, they were only 4.3% behind the BQ. The former NDP MP ran for the Greens in the last election and overperformed. The BQ and the Liberals will be battling for those former NDP/Green votes and whoever wins them, will win the riding.
2019 Result | 2021 Candidate | |
BLOC | 23,061 | Denis Trudel |
LPC | 20,471 | Florence Gagnon |
GPC | 6,745 | Simon King |
NDP | 5,104 | Robert Morin |
CPC | 3,779 | Boukare Tall |
PPC | 467 | TBD |
This rural slice of the Eastern Townships is a knife fight between the Liberals and the BQ. The BQ won by less than 1.5% in 2019 and the former Liberal MP Pierre Breton is attempting a comeback. This seat has a long history of changing parties, so expect it to be a must win for the Liberals and a must-hold for the Bloc.
2019 Result | 2021 Candidate | |
BLOC | 23,503 | Andréanne Larouche |
LPC | 22,605 | Pierre Breton |
CPC | 7,495 | Céline Lalancette |
NDP | 3,705 | Patrick Jasmin |
GPC | 2,814 | TBD |
PPC | 497 | Gerda Scheider |