Northumberland—Peterborough South

    Northumberland—Peterborough South is a collection of small towns and rolling farmland east of Toronto with an increasing number of commuters into the city. It leans Conservative but with a tendency to go Liberals when they are doing well. Conservative MP Philip Lawrence took it from the Liberals by 3.5% in 2019. The trends of white collar workers leaving Toronto to work from rural areas may mean this riding is shifting more towards the Liberals.