The eastern half of Windsor has a long NDP history, and they may be able to profit from the Conservatives splitting the vote. In one of the surprises of the 2019 election, the NDP lost to Windsor city councillor Irek Kusmierczyk of the Liberals with only 33% of the vote. The NDP was only 1.1% behind and the Conservatives not much further back. If the Liberals bleed votes to the Conservatives former NDP MP Cheryl Hardcastle could win again without increasing their own vote very much.