The president of Leger polling Jean-Marc Leger says the upcoming Quebec election will be tighter than expected despite predictions of a historic landslide victory by the legacy media for Francois Legault’s Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ).
The latest poll from Leger gives the governing CAQ 41% support, while seat projections from 338Canada give them between 79 and 106 seats. Sixty-three seats are needed for a majority in Quebec’s National Assembly.
As reported by Cult MTL, Leger believes the situation could change by election day because Quebec voters are “cyclothymics” – meaning their mood shifts up and down.
“Elections in English Canada are easier to predict because the vote is more stable and voters are more loyal. Quebecers are cyclothymics. At each election, they fall in love with a leader (Bouchard, Dumont, Layton, Trudeau, Blanchet, Legault).” said Leger
“Who will be the next one?”
In the last 10 years, Quebec has had four premiers from three political parties, while the federal NDP and Liberals have both had the largest share of parliamentary seats in the province.
A contributing factor to Legault’s lead is the lack of momentum from establishment opposition parties including the Quebec Liberals and the Parti Quebecois. However, a new party has made it into the spotlight – the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ), led by former columnist and radio host Eric Duhaime.
The PCQ was founded in 2009 and received 1.46% of the vote in the last provincial election, but it has since placed second in some polls, receiving as high as 24% support.
The party’s membership has grown from 500 members to over 55,000, and it received over 10% of the vote in the recent Marie-Victorin by-election, a noticeable gain from the 0.75% the PCQ obtained last time it ran a candidate in the riding.
Part of the PCQ’s success can be attributed to its staunch opposition to Legault’s pandemic restriction regime – which included hard lockdowns, curfews, limits on domestic travel and a vaccine passport program that limited access to groceries.
Legault’s popularity has also been decreasing, with Quebecers saying he has done a “poor job” on healthcare and concerns over the government’s controversial Bill 96.
The premier’s approval rating reached a new low of 44% in June 2022, down 33% from the 77% approval that Legault enjoyed two years ago.
The Quebec election is set for October 3, 2022, and Duhaime will be able to participate in debates during the election campaign.
