A new report from the Fraser Institute examined whether the federal government’s current fiscal policies adhere to the target to reduce the debt ratio over the next 25 years.
According to the study, “the current federal fiscal policy is at odds with the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy.”
“Financing increased spending by running deficits boosts aggregate demand, which means that the Bank of Canada has to maintain interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation back to the 2% to 3% target range.”
The Trudeau government postponed reducing its deficit following the pandemic and has since increased spending dramatically.
“Our simulations indicate that there is a high probability of an increasing debt ratio in the future because of the impact of recessions on federal finances. It is, therefore, worthwhile examining in more detail the impact of recessions on the federal debt ratio,” reads the study.
The research group used a Monte Carlo simulation model, which is a computer algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.
They added random shocks to the economy’s growth rate, which were similar to what Canada’s economy has experienced over the past 40 years.
The results were an increased likelihood of higher debt ratios in the future, including higher interest rates.
Fraser’s model indicates that Canada’s net debt ratio has a 44% chance of being higher in 2036/37 and even higher still in 2046/47 with an increased likelihood of 59%.
The projections come at a time when the average Canadian is already suffering from the highest disposable income to debt ratio since 1990, according to data from Statistics Canada.
The proportion of disposable income going to debt payments increased by 15.22% in the third quarter of 2023, up from 15.08% in the second quarter of last year.
Also the average Canadian household is now spending about 15 cents of every dollar (after tax) to service their debt. That’s 5 cents more than the average household in the U.S., which is paying a debt ratio of 10%.
“The continued postponement of deficit reductions by the federal government has raised the likelihood of higher future debt ratios in the event of economic downturns,” the study continued.
“To mitigate this risk, increasing the primary budget balances through reduced program spending as a percentage of GDP is crucial. This strategy will enable the federal government to finance larger deficits from recessionary shocks without triggering an unsustainable increase in the debt,” the study concluded.
The Edmonton Police Service has issued a warning to the public last week after a convicted child sex offender, who goes by Laverne Waskahat, was released from custody.
Police say Waskahat is believed to be of “significant harm to the community” and a risk to children under the age of 16.
The 47-year-old was taken into custody on Dec. 13, 2023, “after failing to report to her parole officer.” Waskahat was released Jan. 22, 2024.
The offender had a history of possessing, making and publishing child pornography involving male and female infants under the age of three. Waskahat has been known to abuse children while babysitting and take “voyeuristic photos in public of infants.”
Police warn that Waskahat may try to associate with someone who has young kids with the intent to groom and abuse them.
Waskahat is known to frequent public bathrooms such as shopping malls to carry out voyeuristic offending behaviour. Edmonton Police Service would not comment on which gender of bathroom Waskahat uses.
This isn’t the first time Waskahat has been released with a likelihood to re-offend. Police issued similar warnings in 2019 and 2020.
A parole officer in the Edmonton area is managing Waskahat.
Waskahat is 5’11’’, 170 lbs, and has brown eyes and black hair.
Edmonton police shared this information with the intent of enabling citizens to take suitable precautionary measures and not to encourage vigilante action.
Anyone with information about any criminal offences committed by Waskahat is asked to contact the Edmonton Police Service at 780-423-4567 or text #377 from a mobile device.
Anonymous information can also be submitted to Crime Stoppers at 1-800-222-8477 or online at p3tips.com/250
During the pandemic, the slogan “trust the science” became a deafening rallying cry, echoing across the media and public discourse. Despite this, the origins of Covid-19 are a subject of ongoing controversy, with suspicions surrounding the Wuhan Institute of Virology steadily increasing. A new essay from C2C Journal explores the idea that the very science championed during the pandemic may have played a role in its creation. C2C Journal contributor Margret Kopala joined True North’s Andrew Lawton to discuss. Read the full essay here.
This week on the Alberta Roundup with Rachel Emmanuel, Rachel unpacks Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s comprehensive policy announcement to protect kids, parental rights, and female athletes. She also breaks down how the left, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have lost their collective minds about this policy.
Also on the show, Rachel has an update about the province’s early efforts to mitigate the risk of severe drought this spring.
And finally, the Alberta government is making moves to address the single use plastic bans in some municipalities.
If you follow the discourse on housing affordability in Canada, chances are you’ve come across the writing of Sabrina Maddeaux, who describes herself as a millennial renter locked out of home ownership.
“It shouldn’t be a luxury to raise your family in the community you grew up in,” Maddeaux said in a video announcing her run for the Conservative nomination in the Ontario riding of Aurora–Oak Hills–Richmond Hill.
Maddeaux didn’t grow up in a traditional conservative household, and she spent much of her career as a Toronto fashion and design writer. In her past life (2012, that is), she was named in a local magazine’s “Dirty 30: Toronto’s most notoriously nocturnal.”
📣 Announcement Time 📣
I’m running to be the next federal Conservative candidate and MP for Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill.
The 35-year-old Anglican Christian was never a partisan and never held a political party membership before becoming ignited by Pierre Poilievre’s 2022 leadership race.
“My parents would not identify as conservative… it’s something I found my way to,” Maddeaux told True North, relaying her long-held belief in protecting individual liberties and freedom of speech, as well as support for free markets, smaller government, and cutting red tape.
“All of that has always very much spoken to me, and that’s what drew me into conservatism.”
(It checks out – I dug up a 2012 interview in which she indicated her passion for freedom of thought and her disdain for censorship.)
“Specifically, what motivated me to actually take the leap and run was Pierre Poilievre’s run as leader and how he used conservative principles to start to address the housing crisis and affordability issues,” she said.
“Before that, young people had been very overlooked in our political system. Certainly, their struggles with housing had been overlooked. And as a millennial who has been directly impacted by the crisis and who is a renter, I have a pretty big stake in that.”
Maddeaux’s accountant mother and auditor father still live in the same Richmond Hill home that they bought six months before she was born, in 1988. While Maddeaux moved to downtown Toronto in her mid-20s for work, she had always planned on moving back to the Richmond Hill area to raise a family there.
However, among her friends in the late-20s to late-30s range, she said she is seeing an exodus from the GTA as young parents flee in search of more affordable housing.
“As someone in my mid-30s, who’s thinking about starting a family and wants to start a family and lives in a condo right now, I think okay, maybe that could work at the very beginning with a crib. But after that child’s a couple of years old, where are they going to go? How are we all going to live together?” she said.
“And it’s stressful because throughout Canadian history, we got used to every generation at least being, on the whole, a little bit better off than the last in terms of living standards. And our generation isn’t, and it worries me, if I have kids, what’s their experience going to be like as well? How are they going to grow up?”
Maddeaux lays blame on all three levels of government on the housing issue, but her most pointed critiques are aimed at Trudeau.
While she lauds immigration as a social, cultural, and economic strength, she says the Liberal immigration targets of the last few years have been unsustainable.
“They were warned that significantly increasing immigration, especially when it came to uncapped international student visas and temporary foreign workers, would have quite a disastrous effect on housing affordability. And they decided to go ahead and do that.”
She added that the Liberals’ “solution” to the housing affordability crisis “has always been to send out checks or to have more savings accounts that really don’t help anyone afford housing – they are just setting a new floor for housing prices.”
“On top of that, (Trudeau) really didn’t pay any attention to the need of increasing supply over the last several years. It wasn’t until Poilievre came forward with his idea of using the federal purse to influence provinces and municipalities to actually upzone and allow more housing that the Trudeau Liberals came on board and have started to do some of that, although not as aggressively as I think they need to be doing.”
Currently, Maddeaux is on leave from her “dream job” as a National Post columnist. The day she announced her nomination run, Liberal MPs Pam Damoff and Dianne Lebouthillier posted screenshots of Maddeaux’s past columns on X in a dishonest effort to nail her as “anti-francophone” and ignorant about firearms.
Maddeaux has addressed in her columns that she is pro-choice, telling True North that abortion is a matter of “individual freedoms” to her.
On the environment, she believes in capitalizing on natural resources and promoting natural gas over coal.
“The other piece that I’ve written about a lot lately is the lack of moral clarity with Canada’s foreign policy,” said Maddeaux.
“We’ve seen that since the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel… I would like to see a moral recentering when it comes to our foreign policy and our international relations, and be part of returning Canada to respectability on the world stage.”
As a fun fact, Maddeaux is indefinitely banned from Russia because of her critiques of Vladimir Putin and calls for harsher sanctions against his regime.
Now, in case you’re still stuck on that “Dirty 30: Toronto’s most notoriously nocturnal” thing I mentioned at the start of this article… Maddeaux laughed as she explained, “One of the biggest pieces of advice I got very early on in my career was to ‘be everywhere and meet everyone.’ So especially in my early 20s, as someone who really didn’t have any natural connections in Toronto and didn’t have parents in that scene… I made a point of getting out and getting to know the local scene and people involved in it.”
Maddeaux also noted she didn’t attend university in Canada – she obtained her political science degree (with a double minor in journalism and theology) from St. Bonaventure University in New York as an NCAA soccer player.
Maddeaux previously covered the “Society” page for the National Post, which made some question how she had attained such a coveted position covering local philanthropic events.
“People look sometimes at the fact that I did that, or the photos from that era. And they think, oh, she must be a nepo baby or come from money, when that’s not at all the case. I worked really hard to get there.”
Maddeaux is currently in a relationship with Keith Sheppard, the former manager of internal communications for the Conservative Party of Canada. Maddeaux insisted he didn’t influence her nomination run, as he left the Conservative position about two years before they met and is now employed as a lobbyist with Blackbird Strategies.
Maddeaux isn’t yet the candidate, but her nomination campaign has found support from two members of the Conservative caucus, MP and former Conservative leadership candidate Scott Aitchison as well as Calgary MP Shuvaloy Majumdar.
So far, Maddeaux’s only declared competition is Rachel Gilliland, an Aurora town councillor. Gilliland may not have the media darling profile that Maddeaux has built up over the last decade, but time will tell if that really matters. The Conservative party has not yet set a date for the nomination.
As Ottawa continues to push its “just transition” away from oil and gas, a new segment called Unjust Transition aims to shed light on dissenting voices within Canada’s energy sector, exploring the complexities and concerns associated with the government’s ambitious energy policy. Modern Miracle Network head and Questerre Energy CEO Michael Binnion joined True North’s Andrew Lawton to discuss the challenges faced by industry representatives and how they impact Canadians.
Former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau argued against revoking the citizenship of a man accused of Nazi war crimes, according to a decades-old government report.
The Commission of Inquiry on War Criminals was re-released Thursday under an Access to Information request from Jewish advocacy group B’nai Brith, with many portions now unredacted.
It was written in the 1980s by historian Alti Rodal and prepared for the Deschêsnes Commission, an investigation launched into Nazis who fled to Canada after the Second World War.
It was first released to the public in 1987 but much of it, including Pierre Trudeau’s position, was heavily redacted.
While serving as justice minister in 1967, Trudeau argued against deporting a Canadian citizen identified as Subject F, who was tried in absentia and found guilty in a court in Riga, Latvia in 1965.
Subject F had been convicted by the Soviet Union of heading a firing squad in the Second World War that was responsible for the murder of 5,128 Jews.
The Department of External Affairs, now called Global Affairs Canada, sought Trudeau’s legal opinion on whether or not the Soviet Union had a solid case for extradition. As justice minister under Prime Minister Lester Pearson, Trudeau responded by saying “it could not be established that Subject F knowingly concealed material circumstances relating to his good character even if it be assumed that he was, in fact, guilty of the crimes for which he was convicted in absentia.”
Trudeau was worried that the deportation of Subject F could set a dangerous precedent that would see other Canadians stripped of their citizenship.
He further elaborated on his stance in a letter to Paul Martin Sr., who was secretary of state for External Affairs at the time.
“There is nothing in the Act to indicate that an application for Canadian citizenship is in the nature of a confessional requiring the applicant to disclose all prior conduct, whether public or private,” wrote Trudeau.
“If we did so, I think we would be forced to concede that similar steps might be taken against any person who had obtained a certificate of citizenship if it were found that he had not disclosed occurrences in his past which we, the government now decide to be of sufficient gravity as to constitute concealment of circumstances material to his grant of citizenship,” he continued.
“I cannot therefore, on the basis of my present appreciation of this case, recommend or concur in a course of action designed to strip subject F of his Canadian citizenship.”
Trudeau’s decision was met with pushback from the Canadian Jewish Congress, who continued to pursue Subject F’s deportation, according to Rodal’s report.
“It’s hardly surprising that, as the minister of justice, (Trudeau) wasn’t just thinking legally, he was thinking politically,” David Matas, senior legal counsel for B’nai Brith, told CBC News.
“The bringing of mass murderers to justice should not be sidetracked by political considerations.”
There has been a revival of Jewish organizations in Canada demanding the Canadian government unseal all documents related to Nazis residing in Canada in the aftermath of former Ukrainian Nazi Yaroslav Hunka receiving a standing ovation from MPs in Parliament during a visit from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller supported the release of a less redacted Rodal Report, while acknowledging that certain information will remain protected under the Information and Privacy Act.
“Those who suffered under Nazi Germany and their descendants want transparency when it comes to this shameful chapter in our history,” said Miller in a written statement. “More can and should be done to provide transparency.”
Matas agrees that there is still much more work to be done in regards to government transparency.
“What we want is a complete release of the records,” said Matas.
“Once the survivors (of the Holocaust) have passed away, what we’re left with in terms of Holocaust remembrance is the records. And so the records become of increasing importance as times go.”
In the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan, the enduring spirit of democracy prevailed against China’s extensive disinformation campaign and hybrid warfare. Despite facing those unprecedented challenges, Taiwanese voters made the decision to safeguard their hard-won free and democratic way of life with a clear and calm mind. The impressive voter turnouts were 71.86% for the presidential election and 72.08% for the legislative election.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, won the election with over 5.58 million votes, constituting 40.05% of the total vote. However, the distribution of seats in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament, resulted in a balanced political landscape, with the DPP winning 51 seats, the Kuomintang (KMT) claiming 52 seats, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) gaining eight seats, and independents taking the remaining two seats, preventing any single party from holding a majority.
Before and after the elections, China orchestrated a massive disinformation campaign, utilizing misleading news articles, AI-generated fake content, and fake social media accounts. These efforts aimed to influence the election outcome and cast doubt on the validity of the elections. However, Taiwan responded with resilience and innovation, pioneering measures to counteract this digital democracy challenge.
Utilizing the 2019 Anti-Infiltration Law, the Taiwanese government effectively thwarted China’s attempts to spread misinformation and interfere in the elections. Civil society played a crucial role, with voluntary fact-checking collectives, tech-savvy individuals, and grassroots initiatives working tirelessly to address fake news, promote media literacy, and bolster public resilience against external manipulation.
China’s hybrid warfare against Taiwan extends beyond disinformation, military intimidation and economic coercion. Two days after incumbent Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected as the next president of Taiwan, Nauru, enticed by China, terminated diplomatic relations with Taiwan, citing UN Resolution 2758 and the “one China principle.” At this particular time, China’s move was seen as a repudiation of democratic values.
In response, Taiwan, the U.S. and other like-minded countries condemned Nauru’s action. Laura Rosenberger, Chair of American Institute in Taiwan, clarified that UN Resolution 2758 did not determine Taiwan’s status, does not preclude diplomatic relations with Taiwan and does not preclude Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the UN system.
Despite China’s efforts to sabotage Taiwan’s democratic system and sovereignty, Taiwan’s successful conduct of free and fair elections serves as a testament to its mature and vibrant democracy.
As Taiwan faces challenges from China, the experience offers valuable insights into the tactics employed by authoritarian regimes to meddle in democratic elections. With many countries preparing for elections this year, Taiwan’s success is a crucial reminder for democratic partners to stay vigilant and take precautions against interference by China and other authoritarian nations.
Looking ahead, when Taiwan’s new president assumes office on May 20, reinforcing the Taiwan-Canada relationship will be a top priority. Building on the achievements in economics and trade, signing the “Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Arrangement (FIPA)” last year marked a pivotal step in fortifying ties between Taiwan and Canada. By fostering a robust partnership, Taiwan and Canada can deepen economic cooperation and contribute to the stability and resilience of global supply chains.
Taiwan’s peaceful and prosperous elections not only represents a triumph for its people and the broader democratic community but also reaffirms Taiwan’s commitment to countering authoritarianism and safeguarding democratic systems globally. With the completion of its elections, Taiwan stands as a force for good and a reliable partner to the international community and, indeed, a beacon of freedom and democracy.
Jin-Ling Chen is the director general of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Toronto.
A new study has found that only a third of people over the age of 50 can afford to retire in their desired timeframe.
The National Institute on Ageing published a report on Wednesday that revealed of all employed Canadians aged 50 years or older, only 35% will be able to afford retirement at their desired age.
“The dramatic rise in inflation that emerged as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in today’s cost of living being even higher than anticipated. Canada saw the most substantial increase in the Consumer Price Index since 1982 in 2022,” reads the report.
“As a result, older Canadians dependent on fixed income beyond government sources like the Canada/ Quebec Pension Plan, Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement are at risk of being unable to afford basic daily expenses, let alone the care they may require.”
Another third of respondents, 39%, said they would not be able to afford retirement at the age they desired under their current financial position.
About 25% of respondents said that they felt unsure as to whether or not they could retire within a desired timeframe.
“Of course, saving for retirement and being prepared for that is a bit of an unknown and a bit of a challenge because … the availability of workplace pensions and other sources of income have changed over the past few decades,” co-author of the study and executive director of the Environics Institute Kieth Neuman told BNN Bloomberg in an interview.
Neuman mentioned that it was important to note the cohort of Canadians who don’t necessarily want to retire as well.
“There’s a certain proportion of older Canadians who don’t plan to retire, who don’t want to retire. Not everybody does,” he said. “We did ask people who had retired how they’re enjoying it and they tend to think it’s going better than they thought it might. So there is some positive news there.”
However, there are also Canadians who are over the age of 80 years who remain working but do wish for retirement.
“Among them, only about half feel that they could do so,” said Neuman.
Co-author Natalie Iciaszczyk said that older Canadians are “doing pretty well in terms of their financial wellbeing.” Iciaszczyk also serves as the research program manager at the National Institute of Ageing.
“Three-quarters of Canadians 50+ reported that their income is enough for them in 2023, with one-third (33%) saying it is good enough and they can save from it, while 39% said it is just enough to avoid major problems,” reads the report.
“One in four Canadians 50+ said that their income is not enough for them (either they are financially stretched [17%] or they are having a hard time [7%]). These results are consistent with 2022 numbers. The view that one’s income is good enough rises with age: it was least prevalent among Canadians aged 50–64 years (28%), increased for those aged 65–79 years (37%) and was highest among those aged 80 years and older (46%),” it continued.
With 39% of respondents saying they only had enough money to get by, Iciaszczyk said that this “signals the first red flag when thinking about our older population in that only so few of them are able to save.”
“What does that mean for when they reach older ages and are no longer working?” asked Iciaszczyk.
“Hopefully in the next three to four to five years we’ll be able to tell if these numbers and proportions are staying consistent, (whether) they are increasing as a greater share of our population does enter 65 and older.”
The latest report from the NIA is the second in a series that is part of a 10-year project.
Retirement readiness levels have remained virtually unchanged since coming out of the pandemic in 2022, according to the report.
“As people get older, in many ways, their outlook is looking better, but this retirement readiness issue persists, to some extent, even across older age groups,” said Neuman.
Every year, thousands of elites descend upon the Swiss mountain town of Davos to discuss the world’s pressing issues and shape a collective vision for the future. Rebel News founder Ezra Levant and journalist Avi Yemini met with True North’s Andrew Lawton at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to discuss the future of the organization and why they keep coming back.
