Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s growing support in the opinion polls is giving Liberals the heebie-jeebies, with many panicking to the point of demanding the Liberals’ negative-ad campaign be launched now.
“The Liberals need to get off their asses,” a former Liberal insider told the weekly Hill Times on the proviso of anonymity.
And then he went on a roll. “You’ve got to provide Canadians a compelling narrative, fresh policy, especially around issues of affordability right now. They have to get back to the fundamentals: organization, making sure that you’re recruiting good candidates. You have to make sure your local constituency organizations are working, and also building an organization because that’s what the Conservatives are going to be doing for the next couple of years: raising money, finding candidates, and getting organized.”
Since winning the Tory leadership, Poilievre has been enjoying a lead over the Liberals of between three- and seven per cent.
This has the party rank and file feeling very, very vulnerable.
A poll released by Angus Reid last week, conducted between Aug. 19-22, put the Conservative support at 37%, the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 20%, the Bloc at seven per cent, and the Greens at three per cent. The poll of 5,014 Canadians had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
And an Ekos Research poll, conducted between Sept. 13-16, suggested that the Tories had the support of 33.7% of Canadians, the Liberals 31.7%, the NDP 20.1% and the Greens five per cent. The poll of 1,005 Canadians had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For old politicos like Liberal MP Judy Sgro, however, Poilievre’s seven-point bump in the polls is just a blip to be expected when a new leader hits the stage, and that it is both premature and needless to panic.
Nonetheless, there are Liberals already pulling out their hair, who wonder why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hasn’t heard the “wake-up call” and why he hasn’t launched an ad campaign which will apparently define and paint Poilievre with a very nasty brush.
“A seven-point lead within two weeks is a lot,” said one Liberal Parliament Hill staffer. “Every Liberal in the country is wondering, ‘Why are you not doing anything about this?’”
The former senior Liberal, meanwhile, said that the party must remember that it has a minority government and an election could happen at any time. Although the Liberals have a confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP, this Liberal said it does not necessarily mean that the next election will not happen before its scheduled 2025 date because the deal could break at any time if either of the parties decides to pull out.
Back in June, the concern among Conservatives was that the leadership campaign was so divisive and nasty that the party would come out hurt beyond repair instead of united.
“The rift is getting bigger and bigger,” Bert Chen, a former Ontario national councillor, said back then. “It’ll be a testament to how capable the new leader is. It’s one thing to be a good speaker and talk about things, but another component of leadership is all about management.”
Those fears, however, now appear to be dashed.
