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Saturday, July 19, 2025

Poll: Strategic voting a threat to Conservatives

By
Hamish Marshall
-

A poll conducted exclusively for True North finds that the two most important issues to Canadians are getting through the COVID pandemic (36%) and climate change (30%), but this varies strikingly by which party they support.

When asked to choose the two most important issues facing Canada today Conservative voters are most concerned about government spending and debt (51%), jobs and the economy (32%) and getting through COVID (28%). Liberal voters care most about getting through COVID (52%), climate change and the environment (45%) and health care, excluding COVID (29%). It is worth pointing out that high-profile issues like foreign affairs and terrorism (2%) and indigenous reconciliation (7%) are not top of mind for voters.

Views on lockdowns

Lockdowns have made 35% of Canadians more concerned about the power of the government, while 65% are grateful for governments taking action to protect Canadians. The backlash against lockdowns is highest in Quebec at 48%, with the lowest in BC at only 24%. 49% of Conservatives and 44% of BQ votes feel that lockdowns have made them more concerned about the power of government. Whereas 84% of Liberals and 78% of NDP voters are grateful that government can take action to protect them.

Middle aged men (47%) and younger women (42%) are the most concerned about government power as a result of the lockdowns. While older women (77%) are the most grateful for them. Gratitude for government having the power to impose lockdowns increases with education levels.

Housing plans

Housing affordability has been one of the big issues of the campaign with both the Conservative and Liberal housing plans being extensively covered and discussed. The two plans, without saying which party they were from were presented in neutral language to respondents to see which one was more popular.

The Liberal plan was preferred by 62% of Canadians compared to 38% for the Conservative plan. The Conservative plan was most popular on the Prairies (41%), in Quebec (41%), with middle-aged men (47%), those with graduate degrees (42%) and people in households under $50,000 (41%). The only group who preferred the Conservative plan to the Liberal one was Conservative voters who sided with it 52% of the time.

Progressive Strategic Voting

In past elections, the Liberals have scared progressive voters into supporting them to stop the conservatives from winning. Is this still a viable plan? The answer is a resounding “Yes.” 41% of NDP and Green voters say they are very likely or moderately likely to vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives from winning. Even if only those who say they are “very” likely to vote strategically actually do so, those voters represent 4.6% of voters, enough to put the Liberals back in the lead.

Likelihood of voting

Elections have been decided by which party has the most enthusiastic supporters. We asked all respondents how likely they were to vote on a scale from 0 to 10. Looking at the percentage who answered a “10” meaning they are absolutely certain to vote is a good indication of enthusiasm for the election and their parties.

Nationwide 68% said they were “10/10 absolutely certain to vote” which indicates that turnout will probably be lower than in 2019. BQ voters were the most likely to vote with 90% saying they were absolutely certain to vote. Liberals were at 77% and Conservatives at 75%. While these numbers are very close it is rare for an incumbent party running for its third term to have a higher enthusiasm level than a challenger who is actually leading in the polls.

Methodology

854 Canadians were surveyed using a nationally representative online panel in either English or French. The survey was conducted between September 2 and 4, 2021. The margin of error is +/-3.4%, nineteen times out of twenty. The margin of error is higher for sub-groups. The results have been weighted for accuracy by age, gender, past federal vote and turnout using the most recent census data. The survey was conducted by ONE Persuasion Inc.

Exclusive True North polling shows the Liberals have blown a spectacular lead

By
Candice Malcolm
-

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau called this vanity election in order to achieve a majority government. That is the only reason we’re in an election right now. But, according to an independent and scientifically valid poll commissioned by True North, there is no way the Liberals can reach that goal. 

Our poll showed the Conservatives with a very narrow lead in a race that’s too close to call. Either way – if these numbers hold – Trudeau will walk away the loser. 

Candice Malcolm is joined by pollster Hamish Marshall to break down the numbers and explain the trends behind them.

Ottawa gym owner stands up to vaccine passports, refuses to check clients’ status

By
Cosmin Dzsurdzsa
-

A gym owner in Ottawa is standing up to the Ontario government’s incoming vaccine passport system. 

The owner of OCR Academy Joshua Fry told the Ottawa Citizen that he will not ask clients to prove their vaccination status to attend his business as of September 22, 2021. 

“Everybody is entitled to fair and equal treatment, not to be refused entry,” said Fry. 

“At the end of the day, we are not an epidemiology facility, we are not a political party. We just simply lift things up and put things down and we want to provide that service for as many people as possible.”

In Ontario, proof of vaccination status will be required to enter “non-essential services” such as restaurants, bars, events, fitness facilities or other public indoor settings.

Those who are unable to prove that they have been vaccinated would be denied access to those spaces. 

“It’s not that we’re anti-vax, and it’s not that we think this pandemic isn’t real. In this particular case, enough is enough and I’m not going to stand for it. I feel comfortable I’ve stood up against a law I don’t feel is just,” said Fry. 

According to him, he had received very little negative feedback from clients after informing over 5,000 people on his business’ mailing list. 

“The nature of our gym does pose many risks. We have in place rules that are designed to keep you and your family safe … strict measures when it comes to cleanliness, sanitation, masks in common areas, physical distance, pre-screening and educating people,” wrote Fry in the email.

As a result of his decision, 151 people had cancelled their membership, however, 3 new members joined. 

Fry could face penalties up to $750 as an individual or over $1,000 as a corporation depending on what public health orders were broken. 

O’Toole details PBO costed platform, plans to cut deficit by 85% by 2026 with no cuts

By
Cosmin Dzsurdzsa
-

Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole revealed on Wednesday that he plans on reducing the federal deficit by 85% by 2025-2026 after releasing his costed platform, Canada’s Recovery Plan. 

According to a news release, the Conservative leader hopes to bring the deficit down from $354 billion to $168 billion this year with the eventual goal of reaching a deficit of $25 billion over the said time span. 

As noted in the announcement, the estimates and outlook were based on the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) 2021 Election Platform Costing Baseline. 

On August 16, 2021, the PBO launched a service to cost the 2021 election campaign platforms for all recognized parties. 

“With the only shrinking economy in the G7, Justin Trudeau has nothing to show for running reckless deficits and spending more than all of the previous Canadian governments combined,” said O’Toole. 

“We cannot afford four more years of Justin Trudeau hiking taxes and saddling future generations with mountains of debt.”

According to the platform costing, the Conservatives claim that no cuts will be needed because O’Toole would “run a disciplined government that limits the growth of future spending.”

The Conservatives project that they would be well on the way toward a balanced budget within a decade and that they could return the country to economic balance in approximately 7 years. 

In a breakdown of spending plans, the Conservatives will introduce $29.7 billion in new spending through to 2022 while shedding the deficit down to $138.2 billion. The following year, O’Toole plans to bring that deficit down to $42 billion while only spending $14.2 billion. 

Despite the estimates, the Conservatives claim that growth will actually be higher than expected due to their $7.6 billion Canada Job Surge Plan which will introduce 180,000 jobs to the economy, along with its plan to implement regulatory reform which would boost Canada’s GDP by 1% over five years, among other measures. 

Additionally, the Conservatives claimed that the Liberal platform was underpriced and could bring Canada’s deficit to grow by over $150 billion a year reaching an unmanageable $1.8 trillion.

According to statistics, Canada’s economy contracted by 1.1% in the second quarter of this year despite other G7 nations like the US and the UK having their economies growing. 

In its Fiscal Sustainability Report in July, the PBO warned that the federal government will not return to a balanced budget until 2070 unless spending was curbed. 

Ottawa trustee wants mandatory vaccines for students, online classes for unvaccinated

By
Cosmin Dzsurdzsa
-

An Ottawa-Carleton District School Board (OCDSB) trustee is pushing for mandatory vaccinations for all eligible students and to corral unvaccinated kids in virtual schools. 

According to a motion presented before the Special Committee of the Whole meeting on August 31, 2021, Trustee Lyra Evans is seeking to implement the mandate beginning on September 30, 2021. 

The motion states that students over the age of 12 will “be required to be partially vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus or provide proof of a medical exemption as of 30 September 2021 and be fully vaccinated as of 20 November 2021 to continue to attend in person classes. Any student who is not vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus after this date will be re-enrolled in the virtual school.”

Repeated attempts to contact Evans by True North for clarification on the motion went unanswered.

Last month, Evans was behind a push to require mandatory masking for all kindergartner children in the district as well as a separate motion that would require any guest or parent on school grounds to show proof of vaccination. 

Last week, fellow OCDSB Trustee Rob Campbell put forward a similar motion on student vaccinations. Campbell’s motion calls on the Board to “write a letter to the Minister of Education to advocate for the addition of the COVID-19 vaccination to the list of compulsory vaccinations for all eligible students.” 

According to Campbell, he will present an updated version of his motion to “advocate for an evaluation by Provincial health authorities as to the wisdom” of adding the vaccine to the list. 

Campbell told True North in an email that his motion was “not actually calling for adding to the list of mandatory vaccinations but calling for an assessment of the idea, which is one step back.”

“Indeed, given that local public health units now can direct all unvaccinated students to go home to isolate, and have the capacity now to discriminate student by student this way, there may not be a need to add to the list of diseases or to ask for further Provincial direction,” said Campbell. 

He went on to explain a similar initiative in Toronto. 

“The (Toronto District School Board) has already called for adding to the list unequivocally as well, and I hear that Provincial Public Health may or may not have started to look at the idea anyway – I’m not certain where that stands or to what degree politics may or may not be involved. As such, the proposed motion is actually weaker, I think it’s fair to say, than the declarations of other School Board related declarations in recent days.”

Conservatives need to stop running away from their conservatism

By
Andrew Lawton
-

After making a clear pledge in the Conservative platform to roll back Justin Trudeau’s sweeping 2020 firearms ban, Erin O’Toole now says anything previously banned will remain banned, a concession that came after days of attacks from the Liberals and the media. Some gun owners are saying they’re done with the Conservatives, while others are merely interpreting the flip flop as the price of getting elected. True North’s Andrew Lawton says Conservatives need to stick to their guns in more ways than one and not flinch in the face of Liberal pushback.

Also, Andrew catches up with Rod Taylor, leader of the Christian Heritage Party. 

SUBSCRIBE TO THE ANDREW LAWTON SHOW

Ontario mayor stands up to Ford government’s vaccine passports

By
Cosmin Dzsurdzsa
-

An Ontario mayor is standing up to the provincial government’s vaccine mandates and passports. 

Township of Warwick Mayor Jackie Rombouts announced on social media that she will refuse to get a passport and won’t visit any business that discriminates against those who cannot produce proof of vaccination. 

“My position is people should not be forced to do anything that is against their will, particularly by a government,” Rombouts told the Toronto Sun. 

“I don’t remember a time in history when government decided to make the rules for the betterment of society — that overstepped their bounds — that turned out good in the long run.”

Rombouts announcement comes following a flip-flop by Ontario Premier Doug Ford who, despite formerly resisting vaccine passports, reversed his decision and announced that the passes would be implemented in the province by September 22, 2021. 

Under the new regime, vaccine passports will be necessary to attend restaurants, gyms, theatres and other settings. Those who are unvaccinated will be barred from accessing these so-called “non-essential” services. 

According to Rombout, she was inspired to take a stand after hearing from Canadians who are being discriminated against for refusing to prove their vaccination status at their workplace or at non-essential services. 

“I don’t understand people who have been vaccinated and have protected themselves — if the vaccine works, they’ve protected themselves — so why are they worried about people who have chosen not to vaccinate?” asked Rombouts. 

“I don’t want to be the spokesperson for this. I really don’t. I just want to serve my community as best I can. I’m just tired of being bullied and I’m tired of watching my constituents be bullied.”

Rombouts is not the only politician to take a stand against Ford’s mandates and passports.

In August, Ontario MPP Rick Nicholls was booted from the Progressive Conservative caucus after he refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine. 

“I choose to exercise this autonomy over my own body. Under no circumstances will I, nor should any other Ontarian, be forced or coerced to do something against their will … to do so is an affront to the democratic principles of this magnificent institution,” said Nicholls. 

Election on a knife-edge: Conservatives lead Liberals by 2%

By
Hamish Marshall
-

A poll conducted exclusively for True North finds that the Conservatives are leading the Liberals by a small margin. The Conservatives are ahead with 33% and the Liberals close behind at 31%, and the NDP in a distant third with 20%. The PPC and the Greens are effectively tied nationally. In Quebec the BQ has a lead (34%) over the Liberals (32%) within the margin of error.

The Liberals lead in Ontario (37%) ahead of the Conservatives at (33%). This is significantly narrower than in 2019 meaning the Conservatives will win more seats if these numbers hold on Election Day. Atlantic Canada looks to remain a Liberal fortress.  The Conservatives dominate the Prairies and are holding their vote in BC. The NDP has been growing in BC and Atlantic Canada. The PPC is ahead of the Greens in Ontario, on the Prairies and in BC.

Conservatives are leading with men of all ages. Their growth among young men is one of the reasons they are ahead of the Liberals overall. Conservatives and Liberals are tied with middle aged women, but the Liberal strength with older women has become a significant reservoir of strength for them. The NDP does best with those under 35. The PPC is at 9% with younger women (more than the Greens or BQ) which shows that their appeal is not how the legacy media portrays them.

Time for a change?

Overall, 61% of Canadians think it is time for a change of government. This is a high number, but not in the range that traditionally signals a change of government. 43% say that the Trudeau Liberals have done a bad job and a new party should be elected (rising to 62% on the prairies, 83% with Conservatives and 51% of BQ voters). 18% of people think Trudeau has done a good job, but it is time for a change. These are the swing voters Trudeau needs to scare back into voting for him. They make up 41% of NDPers, but only 14% of Conservatives.

The only age group that thinks Trudeau has done a good job is women of 55, while two-thirds of Canadians 35-54 think it is time for a change.

Views of the Leaders

While Jagmeet Singh is very popular (62% have a positive view of him, including even 43% of Conservative voters) its not enough to get people to vote for him. Both Trudeau (-7) and O’Toole (-10) have more people who think negatively about them than positively. That said Trudeau has more people intensely dislike him (32%) than O’Toole (29%). These numbers represent big growth for O’Toole, who’s personal numbers were significantly worse before the election and a big drop for Trudeau who started the campaign much more popular.

Trudeau has lost his appeal with younger voters with a majority (61% of men and 55% of women) having a negative view of him. The only age groups who have a majority positive view of him are middle-aged women (52%) and those over 55 (63%).

O’Toole is more popular on the Prairies (54% have a positive view of him) and surprisingly in Quebec (45% positive). More people dislike him in his native Ontario (56%) than like him (40%). O’Toole is also well liked by men over 35 and women between 35 and 54.

When it comes to trust Trudeau and O’Toole have almost identical scores. On a scale from 0 to 10 O’Toole gets a trust score of 4.15 which is slightly ahead of Trudeau at 4.09. Women trust Trudeau more than O’Toole, but O’Toole does better with men over 35. Challengers need a significant lead on the trust measure in order to overcome the natural tendency of Canadians to “stick with the devil they know.”

Methodology

854 Canadians were surveyed using a nationally representative online panel in either English or French. The survey was conducted between September 2 and 4, 2021. The margin of error is +/-3.4%, nineteen times out of twenty. The margin of error is higher for sub-groups. The results have been weighted for accuracy by age, gender, past federal vote and turnout using the most recent census data. The survey was conducted by ONE Persuasion Inc.

Trudeau dismisses pro-freedom protesters as “angry, racist and misogynistic”

By
Candice Malcolm
-

When far-left protesters are “angry,” the legacy media celebrate them and push their causes. When far-left protests get violent, the legacy media cover for them and pretend their violence is somehow justified.

That’s what happened for activists protesting climate change, calling to defund the police and those who burned down churches and toppled statues in the name of reconciliation.

But when protesters demand freedom, Trudeau calls them every name in the book. And, when some stupid idiot decides to throw a rock at Trudeau, he uses it as a political opportunity to flex his progressive bona fides.

Candice Malcolm exposes the left’s hypocrisy and shows how Trudeau is using these protests as a political weapon.

SUBSCRIBE TO THE CANDICE MALCOLM SHOW

Canadian citizens trapped in Afghanistan living in “state of fear”

By
Cosmin Dzsurdzsa
-

Canadians left behind in Afghanistan are being forced to live in a state of fear and uncertainty while the Taliban asserts its dominance in the region following a hasty retreat by the Canadian government. 

According to a report by the Toronto Sun, relatives who remain in contact with their Canadian family members trapped in Kabul are concerned for their kin’s safety. 

“They’re scared for their lives,” the source told the outlet. 

One anonymous woman told the outlet that their fears reached new heights when authorities from Global Affairs Canada offered to disclose her parents’ location to “local authorities.” 

“I said absolutely not. That would actually just make them a target,” the woman said. 

Her relatives were ordered to twice follow directions from the Canadian government but were prevented by the massive crowds of people fleeing from getting close to the airport gates. 

“I didn’t want to tell them to go to Mazar-i-Sharif, which is an 11-hour drive, and wait there like they did at the Baron Hotel,” said the source. 

Global Affairs Canada told evacuees on August 23, to meet at the hotel where consular officials would be present. But according to the source, her parents were turned away by armed US troops. 

“Canada’s evacuation operations from Kabul have ended,” GAC emails to the couple wrote. 

“The security situation remains unstable, especially around the airport. Until the security situation has stabilized, you are encouraged to shelter in a safe place.”

To date, Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau has not offered a concrete plan to evacuate the unknown number of Canadian residents and allied Afghan interpreters left behind in the country. 

When pressed on the matter in August, Trudeau deflected by accusing the former Harper government of failing to address the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis. 

So far, only 1,700 civilians have been evacuated by Canada, yet thousands more still await orders on how to leave the country. 

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