A majority of Canadians believe the country is already in the midst of an economic recession, a new poll shows.
According to a Leger survey, 59% of Canadians think Canada is in recession with 80% saying they think prices of goods and services will continue to balloon.
“It’s sort of a proxy question for how you feel about the economy,” said Leger vice-president Andrew Enns of the poll.
“Between that and the rising inflation and the tightening of household budgets, that probably is not going to be something that’s going to encourage much consumer spending.”
A total of 1,538 Canadians completed the online poll from July 8 to 10.
53% of Canadians also reported worries about air travel delays and airport chaos while 43% said they did not have any concerns.
Economists predict that Canada will officially enter an economic recession as early as next year.
A new report by the Royal Bank of Canada pinned a recession “the most likely outcome” given current trends.
“It doesn’t take a whole lot at that point to push you into negative GDP growth rates at some point next year, which is how a recession is defined,” wrote RBC economist Nathan Janzen.
“When you see unemployment starting to jump more significantly, that’ll probably be the first sign that … we’re in a recessionary backdrop.”
Unlike the 2008 recession, economists at Macquarie Group are saying that Canada will likely face a more prolonged economic contraction than the US.
“We think the effect of the recession will be much more severe in terms of the drawdown on GDP growth, in terms of how high unemployment will rise. That will be much more severe in Canada than what we foresee in the United States,” said David Doyle.
“In the U.S., we’re looking to three to four quarters of softness or contraction in GDP. In Canada, it might be a quarter or two longer than that.”
The Green Party of Canada officially opened the candidate application process for its leadership race on June 28, and a list by the Toronto Star named a number of potential contenders, including some with anti-Israel views among other left-wing beliefs.
The Star’s list includes the six following people:
Dalila Elhak
Elhak was the Green party candidate in the Quebec riding of Beauport—Limoilou and declared her intention to run to replace Annamie Paul, who she called “a disgrace” of a leader, back in September 2021.
She has posted several anti-Israel tweets, including one in which she called Israel an “apartheid” regime, a common anti-Semitic trope.
Le régime d'aparteid israelien s'attaque aux jeunes palestiniens. 'Endless trip to hell': Israel jails hundreds of Palestinian boys a year. These are their testimonies https://t.co/PYkhMTgE7b
— Dalila Elhak, candidate du Pvc Beauport-Limoilou (@ElhakDu) November 24, 2019
Elhak told True North “my positions are unchangeable and reflect my non-negotiable values which are opposed to violence and in favour of the establishment of a lasting peace between the different parties.”
She also called for Canada-wide mask mandates back in 2020.
Sarah Gabrielle Baron
Baron, who ran as an independent against Erin O’Toole in the 2021 federal election, is described by the Star as “an avowed campaigner against nuclear energy.” Her Twitter timeline contains multiple posts disavowing the clean energy source responsible for 54% of her own province of Ontario’s energy.
She also said that the Freedom Convoy movement that was demanding an end to discriminatory vaccine mandates may be “Russian-sponsored”.
— Sarah Gabrielle Baron (@SGB_Canada) June 1, 2022
Furthermore, Baron previously said she wanted to see a 60% reduction to Canada’s carbon footprint in the span of just eight and a half years.
Naomi Hunter
Hunter is currently the leader of the Saskatchewan Green Party, but is seen as a potential candidate to lead the federal party.
During the pandemic, Hunter shared calls for tough restrictions in Saskatchewan and re-tweeted praise for New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern after she postponed her wedding amid the introduction of new Covid-19 restrictions.
In June 2021, Hunter shared a Tweet that said “Cancelling Canada Day is the first step in beginning to build a better Canada”, and called on municipalities to cancel their Canada Day celebrations.
“We continue to see numerous findings of human remains at residential school sites. I continue to feel that we as a country need to do more to show solidarity with the families and communities of residential school survivors and those who did not survive,” Hunter told True North.
Najib Jutt
Jutt, an Alberta-based CBC political commentator and provincial Green Party strategist, was outspoken last year amid the announcement of unmarked graves at the sites of former Indian residential schools.
He shared tweets that condoned acts of vandalism against Catholic and Christian communities.
True North asked Jutt if he would denounce the attacks on Christian and Catholic communities that Canada witnessed last year, but he did not respond.
For the last time, history is not being erased or rewritten just by changing a name or taking down a statue. That's why we have museums. It shows the evolution and progression of a society, as we learn more, we seek to do better and undo past wrongs. Let's do Churchill next. https://t.co/oM7XGb0E5V
Jutt is also a vocal opponent of Winston Churchill, claiming he was a “genocidal racist.” The former British prime minister is known for having stopped the Nazis in World War II.
Anna Keenan
Keenan was a Green Party candidate in Prince Edward Island riding of Malpeque. Her Twitter bio states that she uses both “She” and “They” pronouns, and she’s shared pro-abortion views on social media, as well as Covid alarmism.
Keenan said she is dreaming of “building a post-colonial future” and that Canada and the United States could “take a page” from Australia’s gun laws, which ban the ownership of firearms for self-defence.
In Australia's gun laws, one key concept: the need to prove a "genuine reason" to own a gun.
Valid reasons: sports, hunting, profession. Not valid: for "protection" or "self-defence".
The US & Canada could take a page from Aus's book here. #guncontrol
She has also criticized the Israeli government and suggested that the Freedom Convoy should have been removed faster.
Alex Tyrrell
The leader of the Quebec Green Party told True North he believes the federal party should “take a sharp left turn and adopt an eco-socialist platform while returning to our activist roots.”
Tyrrell has shared anti-Israel views on social media and promoted Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS), a movement that has been accused of detouring into anti-Semitism. However, Tyrrell said he categorically rejects “any assertion that criticism of the Israeli government or Israeli military equates to anti-Semitism.”
He also said that former Green Party Annamie Paul, who is Jewish, was facing internal backlash because she would not “condemn the racist actions of the state of Israel.”
M. Attaran you have no idea what you are talking about. This started because @AnnamiePaul did not condemn the racist actions of the state of Israel. The Green Party of Quebec is an outspoken voice against racism in Quebec. Retract your statement! https://t.co/vqgFz8e1sg#cdnpoli
Tyrrell has shown support for the Extinction Rebellion environmentalist movement and participated in a “Shut Down Canada” Indigenous rail blockade which he said halted rail Traffic in Montreal for over two hours.
Very happy to have participated in tonight’s rail blockade in solidarity with the Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs in their struggle to uphold indigenous rights while blocking the costal gas link pipeline. #ShutDownCanada#polqc#cdnpolipic.twitter.com/RWwZxMoFM0
Furthermore, Tyrrell opposed University of Ottawa professor Verushka Lieutenant-Duval’s use of the “N-Word” in one of her lectures, and said he was in solidarity with the George Floyd protesters in the United States.
Solidarity with the protests currently erupting in Minneapolis following the racist and brutal police murder of George Floyd.
When asked by True North about the violence seen during the Black Lives Matter protests in the wake of George Floyd’s murder, Tyrrell said he is “inspired by Martin Luther King’s way of thinking on violence in the civil rights movement; that its presence does not serve the movement.”
True North reached out to all six prospective candidates to give them the opportunity to explain some of their controversial stances.
The Green Party of Canada is expected to choose its new leader on November 19.
More economists are saying that Canada is heading for a recession by next year.
The latest warning comes from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), whose economists say that a recession is very likely.
A report released by the bank last week cites persisting inflation, hawkish central bank policies and interest rate hikes as contributing to their prediction.
“(Recession) has become, in our view, the most likely outcome,” said report author Nathan Janzen.
“It doesn’t take a whole lot at that point to push you into negative GDP growth rates at some point next year, which is how a recession is defined.”
RBC economists say that the Bank of Canada will take the US Federal Reserve’s lead and soon hike rates by 75 basis points. Additionally, they say that the central bank could hike rates to 3.25% by the end of the year.
“Strong domestic demand for housing and services has intensified these pressures and the labour crunch is driving wages higher,” wrote Janzen.
Unemployment could jump by 1.5% to 6.6% as pressures continue to contract Canada’s economy.
“When you see unemployment starting to jump more significantly, that’ll probably be the first sign that … we’re in a recessionary backdrop,” explained Janzen.
David Doyle, who is an economist with the firm Macquarie Group, also had similar predictions but added that Canada could face a worse recession than the US this time around.
“When [Canada] has recessions, the lion’s share of the weakness in gross domestic product tends to come from residential investment,” said Doyle.
“We think the effect of the recession will be much more severe in terms of the drawdown on GDP growth, in terms of how high unemployment will rise. That will be much more severe in Canada than what we foresee in the United States.”
Doyle predicted that Canada’s recession could last a quarter or two longer than the impending recession south of the border.
“In the U.S., we’re looking to three to four quarters of softness or contraction in GDP. In Canada, it might be a quarter or two longer than that,” explained Doyle.
Quebec-based energy company Utica Resources is suing the Legault government over an anti-energy bill, which they claim violates Article 6 of Quebec’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
The bill, titled “An Act mainly to end petroleum exploration and production and the public financing of those activities,” bans the exploration and production of oil and gas in the province.
The legislation also “revokes petroleum exploration and production licences and authorizations to produce brine” and “requires… the holders of a revoked licence to permanently close wells and restore sites according to the terms and conditions it determines,” with an exception for wells used for government approved pilot projects.
In a press release, Utica said the bill “constitutes an attack on Utica Resources’ right to ‘the peaceful enjoyment and free disposition of its property,’” as laid out in the Quebec Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
Utica adds that for years Quebec had invited companies to invest in the exploration and extraction of the province’s oil and gas resources, but suddenly “the government changed its mind for political reasons and effectively expropriated our properties without proper prior compensation.”
The company is asking the Superior Court of Quebec to either nullify the bill or require the government to provide a compensation of $18 billion.
Utica’s CEO Mario Levesque says that “a leading independent expert has concluded that Utica’s properties would generate $67 billion in future profits (net value of recoverable resources in place), the equivalent of $18 billion in net present value using the discount rate of the Court.”
The company says its lawsuit is paramount because a ruling in the government’s favour would signal the non-existence of property rights in Canada, which they claim would make both Quebec and Canada uninvestable territory.
The Quebec government’s legislation has also received criticism from other prominent figures in the Canadian oil and gas industry, including Questerre Energy president Michael Binnion.
“By blocking the development of its natural gas resources with zero-emissions technology for export, Quebec is missing an important opportunity to work with other nations to provide secure, reliable energy for our European allies,” said Binnion in a press release.
Energy companies have said they need at least $500 billion in compensation from the Quebec government, however Legault has only offered them $100 billion.
The government bill, which received support from the Quebec Liberal Party and the Parti Quebecois, makes Quebec the first jurisdiction in North America to ban oil and gas extraction and production.
A national survey suggests that Canadians who identify themselves on the political right are more concerned about freedom of speech compared to the left and are more likely to believe that free speech in Canada is at risk.
A June 2022 national phone survey by the Canadian Hub for Applied and Social Research at the University of Saskatchewan found that while Canadians generally believe that the country has freedom of speech, right-wing Canadians are more likely to think Canada has little or no free speech.
About a quarter of respondents who identify as right-wingers believe that Canada has little or no free speech, while only three percent of left-wingers believe Canada has a lack of free speech.
Right-wing Canadians also want their right to free speech to mirror the American understanding of free speech rights, that the government cannot infringe the right for any reason. Under three percent of left-wing Canadians felt the same way.
Both Canada and the United States prosecute threats and other crimes that not only involve speech but also put someone else in danger.
Canadian law takes this a step further, prohibiting “hate propaganda,” which allows the government to prosecute anyone who disseminates what the government believes to be hate against an “identifiable group” distinguished by colour, race, religion, ethnicity, etc.
In recent months, the Trudeau government has unveiled a swath of online censorship bills, which many critics argue put Canadian free speech at risk.
The House of Commons passed Bill C-11, an act that would give the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) the power to boost government-approved content and turn down the visibility of undesired content.
In the previous parliament, the Trudeau Liberals tabled Bill C-36, an act that would allow the government to crack down on so-called “hate speech” posted online.
The Trudeau government passed legislation that would further expand the hate propaganda label and restrict free expression with Bill C-16, a bill that added gender identity and gender expression to the list of prohibited grounds to discriminate.
Protein intake is expected to slow down in wealthy countries such as Canada as consumers shift towards plant-based diets and alternatives like insect-based “meat,” according to a United Nations agency and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
In a 2030global agriculture outlook, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the OECD predict an “unprecedented shift in food consumption” habits globally.
“In high-income countries, average per capita consumption of proteins is not expected to expand much over the next decade, due to near saturation in consumption, and heightened concerns about health and the environment,” the report describes.
“These concerns, together with ethical considerations regarding the welfare and eating of animals, could also boost demand for plant-based proteins and alternative protein sources (e.g. insects, cultured meat).”
On Jun. 27, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada announced it was giving $8.5 million to the company Aspire to build an insect production facility in London, Ont. to process cricket-based proteins for animal and human consumption.
“Aspire will be at home here as the company re-defines what is possible in the insect protein sector, creating new solutions for sustainable food production,” said Liberal MP Arielle Kayabaga.
As exclusively reported by True North in March, during a House of Commons industry committee meeting, the Liberals lamented the fact that Canada was not a leader in producing alternative proteins like “lab meat” or insect-based feed.
“Lab or ‘clean meat’ is one potential contributor to the human demand for protein in the future. That’s obviously a high-risk, high-reward initiative. It’s one that the U.S., Singapore and Israel are all pursuing. Canada is not, unfortunately, at the moment. Entrepreneurs are leaving the space in Canada, unfortunately,” said Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.
According to the OECD and UN, the consumer trend for substituting animal meat with alternatives looks promising in developed countries.
“Consumers’ purchasing decisions are increasingly driven by factors beyond prices, culture and taste, such as health and environmental concerns, and ethical considerations regarding the welfare and eating animals and their products,” the report explained.
“This trend is reflected by the increase in vegetarian, vegan or “flexitarian” lifestyles in high-income countries, particularly among young consumers. Meat and dairy markets would be most affected by a shift to plant-based proteins, or alternative protein sources (e.g. insects, cultured meat).”
Freedom Convoy organizer Tamara Lich remains behind bars after a justice of the peace denied her bail request after she was arrested and hauled to Ottawa for allegedly violating her bail conditions. The justice of the peace said letting her walk free would undermine public confidence in the justice system. True North’s Andrew Lawton says the opposite is true.
Also, Andrew breaks down the United Conservative Party leadership race with True North’s new Alberta correspondent, Rachel Emmanuel.
Plus, a look at the Canadian energy sector with former Encana CEO Gwyn Morgan.
As farmers protests rage in the Netherlands and beyond, the head of one of Canada’s premier agricultural groups is warning that strict domestic emissions targets could spur a similar reaction from the industry.
Strict nitrogen and ammonia emissions caps by the Dutch government have sparked nationwide protests. Tens of thousands of farmers and their supporters have formed convoys throughout the country demanding a referendum on government measures. As a result of the chaos, farmers have even been fired upon by police.
According to President of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Gunter Jochum, Canadian farmers could also soon have their backs against the wall as a result of emission targets.
“We have talked to other producer groups, we’re very concerned about exactly that same scenario. And will we go to these lengths like what’s happening in the Netherlands? I don’t know,” Jochum told True North.
“But, you know, all I can say is, if you push farmers back right up against the wall where their livelihood is at stake and it’s a direct result of government overreach and non science based policies, then, who knows what could happen?”
Two years ago, the Liberal government introduced a 30% emissions reduction target for fertilizer use in the agricultural industry. In comparison, the Netherlands has instituted a 50% emissions cut on nitrogen and ammonia emissions by 2030.
“The fertilizer target’s objective is to contribute to lower GHG emissions from the agriculture sector, building on and leveraging public and private programs and initiatives,” an Agriculture Canada discussion document writes.
“The target applies to both direct (following fertilizer application) and indirect (from nitrogen leached from fields and volatilized to the atmosphere as ammonia) emissions from the application of fertilizer.”
As exclusively reported by True North, Agriculture Canada also signalled out the wheat industry as being among the worst emissions offenders when it comes to fertilizer use.
According to Jochum, targets on fertilizer do not adequately take into account how efficient its use already is, leaving some agricultural producers with little wiggle room when it comes to reducing emissions.
“I have a real problem with just blanket saying we need to reduce fertilizer use by X amount percent when there isn’t really real baselines established,” Jochum told True North.
“Now all these grains take different amounts of fertilizer and so to just say, ‘Okay, we’ll reduce it based on this year, and that tonnage,’ would be very foolish. The other problem is each crop and each weather event, each different types of fertilizer and (every scenario has) different emissions.”
With slow labour force growth, supply chain issues and record-high job vacancies, the construction industry is experiencing serious challenges as many contractors are forced to delay or cancel projects.
“It’s probably one of the toughest labour markets we’ve seen in a while,” said the chief operating officer for PCL Constructions Inc. Chris Gower. “This scarcity of Labour is driving up costs and it’s also making us have to make tough decisions to turn down work.”
Gower said PCL has been turning down opportunities “simply because we don’t have the resources to manage it,” saying it was not the case just two years ago.
Gower also said that a lack of labour can affect not only clients but also families who are expecting to move into new homes and hospitals that require renovations to treat patients.
Construction is among several industries reporting increases in job vacancies according to BuildForce Canada, a national organization that represents the construction industry.
“We certainly don’t think it’s going to get better anytime soon,” said BuildForce’s executive director Bill Ferreira. “The demand for construction services is very high, particularly in Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, but not exclusively.”
BuildForce reportedinvestments in construction rebounded in 2021 as the economy started recovering from the pandemic, but the labour force has not been able to keep up.
“Those workers that were available are all being swallowed up by the expansion in demand and so you’re seeing declining unemployment rates in the construction industry,” he said, noting that nearly all trades – from carpenters, to electricians and plumbers – are experiencing the same issues.
Statistics Canada recordedall-time high job vacancies in construction, with employers looking to fill almost 90,000 vacant positions as of April 2022, doubling what it was in October 2020. Vacancies across many trade occupations is up 97%, and carpenters up nearly 150%.
Employment and Social Development Canada saiddemand for trades is likely to remain high. Citing BuildForce, Statistics Canada said the industry needs to recruit over 300,000 new workers in the next decade to meet demands.
In response, the federal government is allowing Canadian companies to hire significantly more temporary foreign workers (TFWs) in order to ease labour shortages.
As of April 30, employers have been allowed to increase the number of low-wage TFWs from 10% to 20% of their total workforce. Industries affected include food manufacturing, healthcare, nursing and residential care, accommodation and food services.
Employers will also be able to keep TFWs in positions for 270 days, instead of the current 180 days. The government is also expanding the time that a foreign worker hired through the Global Talent Streams program can be employed in Canada from two years to three.
“As we begin to recover from the pandemic and look to fill remaining job vacancies, we will continue to make our Temporary Foreign Worker Program more accessible, efficient and agile to support employers who are looking to staff up and grow their operations,” the federal Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Sean Fraser said in a statement.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says he has “absolutely no regrets” about his time in the province’s top job or his decision to step down.
After narrowly surviving a leadership review with 51.4% of party support in May, Kenney announced he would step down as the United Conservative Party (UCP) leader and premier.
At his annual Calgary Stampede Premier’s pancake breakfast on Monday, Kenney told True North that he was elected on the “most ambitious platform” promised by any government and achieved 90% of those commitments, which focused on the economy.
“We’ve done what we said we would do. I did what I said I would do,” he told True North. “When I hand over the reins this fall, I’ll do so with a sense of achievement, of accomplishment, of no regret, and filled with optimism for this province.”
Ahead of the results of his leadership review, the premier repeatedly said he would stay as leader if he reached 50% of party support, which he called a majority mandate to continue. But just moments after the results were announced, the premier said he did not have enough support to continue and announced his intentions to resign.
Alberta’s next premier will inherit a $3.9 billion surplus, largely stemming from higher than expected oil prices and household income, according to the 2021–22 fiscal results. It marks the biggest fiscal turnaround in Alberta’s history.
The province also saw the creation of over 200,000 net new jobs since the beginning of last year, most of which are outside the energy sector, Kenney said.
“This is not simply about good commodity prices,” he said. “It’s about diversification and new investment being driven in part by our recovery plan and our open for business policies.”
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney serves pancakes to attendees of his last Calgary Stampede pancake breakfast as premier. After he narrowly passed a leadership review, Kenney announced he will resign once UCP members select a new leader & premier on Oct. 6. #abpolipic.twitter.com/KqdqkN2uhH
Kenney used his last pancake breakfast as premier to announce “Alberta Day” which will be celebrated on September 1. It’s not a statutory holiday, but will occasionally fall on Labour Day, a stat holiday celebrated on the first Monday in September.
Quebec has “been brilliant” at celebrating what makes them distinctive and “we want to do the same thing here in Alberta,” Kenney said.
The former federal MP said he hasn’t decided whether he’ll stay on as MLA once the next premier is selected.
“That would partly be based on discussions I have with a future leader,” he said.
There are currently 10 candidates running for UCP leader and the premiership. Contenders have spent the last few days campaigning at the Calgary Stampede and seeking signatures for their nomination forms.
Candidates are nearing the July 20 cutoff, in which they must submit 2,000 signatures from across the province to continue running.
Party members will elect a new leader and premier on October 6.
